Event: on March 15, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released data on fixed asset investment and industrial added value from January to February. The report pointed out that China's national economy recovered better than expected.
The investment in fixed assets is accelerated or the demand can be verified to pick up, and the high-tech manufacturing industry plays a leading role. From January to February, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 12.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 7.3p month on month compared with December 2021. Among them, the absolute amount of fixed asset investment in February increased by 0.66% month on month compared with January, and the prosperity was further improved. In terms of sectors, manufacturing investment led the way, especially high-tech manufacturing: from January to February, manufacturing investment increased by + 20.9% year-on-year (compared with + 8.1% and + 3.7% year-on-year growth of infrastructure investment and real estate development investment respectively), and high-tech manufacturing investment increased by + 42.7%, further exceeding the overall growth rate of manufacturing investment, including electronic and communication equipment manufacturing The investment in medical equipment and instrument manufacturing industry was + 50.3% and + 41.2% respectively year-on-year. We believe that the improvement of manufacturing investment boom has verified the gradual recovery of the demand side to a certain extent. From the previously released manufacturing PMI in February, we can also see that the new order index in February was 50.7%, which returned to the expansion range for the first time since August 2021. Moreover, the new order index of pharmaceutical, special equipment, automobile and other industries was higher than 54.0%, and the industry demand was in a high boom range. Considering that there are many uncertain factors such as repeated outbreaks in the near future, it is recommended to pay close attention to the demand side, and the investment in equipment is expected to gradually return to a higher outlook with the recovery of demand.
The production end of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing is in good condition, and the growth rate is faster than the overall level of the industry. From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.2pp month on month compared with December 2021. Among them, the absolute amount of industrial added value in February increased by 0.34% month on month compared with January. From January to February, the added value of mining industry increased by 9.8%, manufacturing industry increased by 7.3%, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 6.8%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year, 6.9pp and 2.1pp faster than that of industries above Designated Size respectively. By product, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries was + 150.5%, + 29.6%, + 26.4% year-on-year respectively. The overall condition of the production end is good.
The general trend of import substitution in the manufacturing field remains unchanged + industrial upgrading under the requirements of carbon neutralization, and pay attention to the investment opportunities of mechanical equipment and core components. The transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry will be a very important part of China's economy dominated by internal circulation. Chinese enterprises continue to work in photovoltaic, lithium battery, electronics, semiconductor and other fields, maintain a high level of prosperity, drive equipment investment, and the investment and import substitution at the equipment level will also promote the substitution of core components. Looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, we believe that the above advanced industries will continue to constitute a key force to drive equipment investment; On the other hand, in the mining and manufacturing of raw materials, especially in some high energy consuming industries, it is also expected to usher in an upward inflection point of equipment investment under the promotion of rising profit level and carbon neutralization policy. Chinese enterprises have a good foundation to replace imports in laser, industrial control, machine vision, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , oil service and other fields. It is recommended that [ Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) ], [ Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) ], [ Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ], [ Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) ], [ Suzhou Veichi Electric Co.Ltd(688698) ], [ Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ].
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth slowed down, the recovery of demand side was less than expected, and the shortage of core components exceeded expectations.
