Various provinces have introduced peak shifting and production restriction, and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by production restriction in southwest, Pearl River Delta, East Guangdong and East China. Under the expectation of steady growth, investment opportunities in the cement industry have regained market attention. We believe that the investment opportunities brought by the current changes in the supply side of the cement industry should also attract market attention. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the cement peak shifting production plan formulated by each province at the beginning of the year. Except for Xinjiang and Hebei, and a few provinces, the number of days of limited production of clinker in most provinces of the country has increased significantly. Among them, Guangdong and Guangxi in South China, Yunnan, Guizhou and Tibet in Southwest China, Qinghai and Shaanxi in Northwest China and Henan in Central China all increased by more than 45 days. The increase of production restriction days should first focus on South China and southwest China. From the perspective of the reduction range of days in production, the average reduction range of South China and southwest China is the largest, reaching 29.7% and 24.7% respectively. In the past few years, Guangxi and Yunnan Guizhou in Southwest China have put in large production capacity. The peak shifting and production restriction in South China and southwest China can better hedge the impact of production capacity on the market pattern in the past few years. It should be noted that the cement of Yunnan Guizhou and Guangxi are mainly supplied to the Pearl River Delta along the Xijiang River Basin, while eastern Guangdong is a relatively independent market from the Pearl River Delta and Guangxi Yunnan Guizhou. In the past two years, there has been no supply impact except for the 10000 ton line put into operation by tapai. The new peak shifting and production restriction days in 2022 are purely a supply contraction for eastern Guangdong, which may have a more obvious impact on the cement price, Regional leaders are expected to benefit significantly. It is suggested to pay attention to East China after southwest of South China. The number of days in production in East China decreased by only 5% in 2022. However, it should be noted that since the second half of 2021, due to the continuous increase of sea freight, the imported clinker has decreased significantly and increased negatively for eight consecutive months. There is a significant deviation between the price difference between clinker along the river and imported clinker and the growth rate of imported clinker. In the context of the reduction of imported clinker, the production restriction will be further strengthened and the supply contraction will be further highlighted. Therefore, the impact on East China will be more obvious than that in other regions.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 03 / 7-2022 / 03 / 11), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by – 4.4%, and the excess return relative to CSI 300 was – 0.1%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 12.5%, compared with 0.3% of the excess yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was – 6.1%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 1.7%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 15.2% / – 11.2%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 118.21 yuan / weight box, down 3.6% month on month and up 3.6% year on year. The inventory was 50.72 million weight boxes, up 8.6% month on month and 77.3% year-on-year. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, and the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, but we should pay attention to the growth of actual orders of processing plants in the short term. This week, the average price of mainstream winding direct yarn in China was 6150 yuan / ton, down 2.0% month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, down 9.09% month on month; The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 515 yuan / ton, up 0.4% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. This week, the cement delivery rate increased by 46.4pct to 57.8% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 60.3%, with a month on month decrease of 3.9 PCT. The data related to cement shipments have improved significantly, and the steady growth of infrastructure may provide a solid support for cement demand and price.
Investment proposal and investment object
Recommend CSG a ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). It is suggested to pay attention to the cement faucet Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated), Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , not rated), and Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , not rated). Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: CSG a, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
