Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on March 4, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 411.6 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.9 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 244.6 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.4 million barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 113.9 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 5.2 million barrels; Propane inventory was 355.3 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.624 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on March 4, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 700000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On March 11, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 663, with an increase of 13 in the week and 261 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 206, with a weekly decrease of 11 and an annual increase of 90. Among them, there are 527 oil production rigs in the United States, an increase of 8 in the week and 219 in the year.
Price change:
The price of our top chemical products rose by 19.3% and 188.3% respectively (the price of our top chemical products rose by 3.3% in this week); The top three declines were chloroacetic acid (down 17.7%), glycine (down 17.0%) and solid caustic soda (down 12.1%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were liquid chlorine (up 51.7%), butadiene (up 42.7%) and sulfuric acid (up 37.6%); The top three declines were glycine (down 30.4%), chloroacetic acid (down 26.2%) and melamine (down 22.8%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are R410A price difference (up 500.0%), polyvinyl alcohol price difference (up 108.8%) and butadiene price difference (up 92.8%); The top three declines were: oil head ethylene glycol price difference (down 1048.9%), styrene price difference (down 946.4%) and polyethylene price difference (down 218.3%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were R410A price difference (up 500.0%), styrene (up 208.1%) and butadiene price difference (up 161.3%); The top three declines were: oil head ethylene glycol spread (down 970.0%), R134a spread (down 268.9%) and PX (down 176.6%).
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the oil price is at a high level. The market is worried that the profitability of large refining and chemical will be affected after the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel. In terms of refined oil, as China’s refined oil pricing mechanism is more market-oriented, in the range of 40-130 US dollars / barrel, as long as the oil price does not rise or fall sharply, there is a high probability that there will be a reasonable profit range for refined oil in the future. In terms of chemicals, due to the existence of supply side constraints, the rising probability of cost side can be transmitted to the downstream. At present, the price difference of chemicals represented by polyethylene is at the bottom and the downward space is small. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , buy).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of crude oil and other commodities and the rise of inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities related to agrochemicals. In terms of chemical fertilizer, due to the extremely limited new capacity of global chemical fertilizer supply, the global supply and demand of chemical fertilizer maintain a fragile and tight balance. Although the recent price is relatively stable, there are expectations of continued price rise and trading opportunities in the sector from the recent rise of chemical fertilizer targets in US stocks. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , overweight), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , buy), Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) ( Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , buy) Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated), Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ( Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. In terms of pesticides, high food prices support the demand and price acceptance of pesticides, and pay attention to the globally distributed pesticide enterprises with outstanding competitiveness Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy).
Risk tips
The price difference between ethylene and oil price further narrowed, the demand for chemicals was lower than expected, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, and geopolitics.
