The central bank released the financial statistics report for February. At the end of February, the balance of RMB loans was 197.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.1pct month on month And 1.5pct, The growth rate continued to decline. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. At the end of February, the balance of RMB deposits was 238.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. In February, RMB deposits increased by 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year.
New loans contracted and credit demand was insufficient. Household loans increased by – 336.9 billion yuan, including – 291.1 billion yuan of new short-term loans. Even under the stimulation of the Spring Festival, residents’ consumption momentum is still insufficient; Medium and long-term loans increased by – 45.9 billion yuan, which was negative for the first time since 2009. The adjustment of the real estate industry affected residents’ purchase expectations, and the overall sales were depressed. The real estate policies issued by various regions may marginally improve the market demand. The growth of medium and long-term loans in the future remains to be observed. New corporate loans reached 1240 billion yuan, a decrease of 212 billion yuan month on month and an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. The medium and long-term loans of new enterprises increased negatively year-on-year again after becoming positive year-on-year in January, indicating that the current real credit demand has not recovered. In the future, with the implementation of various steady growth policies, enterprises’ willingness to invest will gradually increase, which can drive the steady growth of credit scale.
Investment suggestion: the financial data in February was lower than expected, which showed that the current credit demand was insufficient. Among them, the residents’ demand for house purchase was affected by the real estate risk, and the epidemic repeatedly affected the consumer demand, while the enterprises’ willingness to invest was not strong due to the rising cost. Under the comprehensive influence of various factors, the current credit demand was weak. The government work report puts forward that the GDP growth target in 2022 is 5.5%, which requires the efforts of all parties to jointly achieve the target, and the loan scale will continue to expand during the year. Even if the foreign situation is complex in the near future, China’s goal of steady growth remains firm, the certainty of credit expansion during the year is strong, and banks are expected to achieve performance growth to drive the improvement of value. It is suggested to focus on banks with comprehensive business layout, stable asset quality and stronger bargaining power, which can better benefit from steady economic growth: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy regulation exceeded expectations; Asset quality declined.
