Industry core view:
Event:
In March 11th, the national health and Health Committee issued the notice on the issuance of the COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan (Trial Implementation). In response to the comprehensive prevention and control mechanism of New Coronavirus pneumonia, the integrated group decided to increase the antigen detection on the basis of nucleic acid detection, and formulated the "COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan (Trial Implementation)".
From March 11 to 14, the food and Drug Administration successively approved the registration applications of huaketai biology, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , jinwofu biology, Huada Yinyuan, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , boassis, Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) and 11 covid-19 antigen / anti physical examination test kits of Beijing Bell biology.
Key investment points:
Antigen detection is a supplement to nucleic acid detection and not a complete replacement: nucleic acid detection is the basis for the diagnosis of covid-19 virus infection. In the process of nucleic acid test confirmation, if the nucleic acid test is positive, no matter whether the antigen test result is positive or negative, corresponding measures shall be taken according to covid-19 virus infected patients or covid-19 pneumonia diagnosed patients; If the nucleic acid test is negative but the antigen test is positive, it shall be regarded as covid-19 virus infected, take centralized isolation and other measures, closely observe and continuously carry out nucleic acid test. From the perspective of application scenarios, antigen detection has not been officially confirmed.
Large scale sales and use depend on the procurement of national governments. 1) At present, the average price of antigen self-test products is about 20 yuan, and the price is high. Take Beijing jinwofu covid-19 antigen self-test product currently sold by meituan as an example, the current price is 28 yuan / share (1 person share), and the price of Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) covid-19 self-test product is 23 yuan / share (1 person share); 2) Referring to overseas sales, large orders are purchased by the government and then distributed free of charge. Therefore, the final release of antigen detection still depends on government procurement.
Investment suggestion: under the background of normalization of epidemic situation and large population base, covid-19 detection has a huge demand. As a supplement to nucleic acid detection, antigen detection will usher in a broad market. We suggest short-term attention: 1) listed companies that have been approved covid-19 antigen self-test products in China; 2) Covid-19 antigen detection products have been approved in foreign companies, and it is expected to obtain evidence and be approved quickly in China in the future; 3) The antigen detection market is liberalized, and the orders of upstream raw material enterprises are expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to IVD upstream raw material enterprises. In the long run, the entry threshold of antigen detection reagents is not high, large-scale centralized purchase, price reduction and deterioration of competition pattern may be inevitable. It is recommended to be cautious when predicting the profit space of relevant enterprises.
Risk factors: centralized purchase and price reduction, deterioration of competition pattern and market fluctuation risk
