Market Overview
On Friday, March 11, 2022, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00% to close at 330975 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 4.40% and the gem index fell 3.03%.
Sichuan caizhou viewpoint
The biggest adverse factor that interferes with the market this week is the continuous tension in Russia and Ukraine, and the rising commodity prices lead to global inflation. However, in the long run, China’s economy has a good foundation and conditions to maintain a reasonable range and has a certain degree of independence. The infrastructure sector benefits from the support of stable growth policies, which is expected to hedge against the adverse factors of the external environment and get out of the independent market, Specifically reflected in the following aspects:
1. In terms of the issuance amount of local government special bonds, it is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of local government special bonds this year, adding that the physical workload of 1.2 trillion yuan of special bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be transferred to this year. Therefore, a total of 4.85 trillion yuan of special bonds can be used for specific projects this year, and 640 billion yuan will be invested in the central budget at the same time, Coupled with the 1.5 trillion medium and long-term loans provided by banks for enterprise equipment renewal, these investments will stimulate more social capital to participate in the market and provide strong support for expanding effective investment.
2. From the perspective of project implementation, there are 102 major projects that have been approved and are being implemented in the 14th five year plan. These major projects include more than 2600 sub projects, of which 96% have been started and are gradually blooming in many places. While accelerating the construction progress of projects under construction, all localities and industries speed up the planning of a number of new projects, promote the preliminary work, and form a virtuous circle of rolling development of planning, construction in progress and completion and operation.
3. From the perspective of the performance fulfillment degree of listed companies, relevant companies in the infrastructure sector successively released performance announcements from January to February, with a high rate of good news.
Industry dynamics
On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, which proposed that by 2025, new urban buildings will be fully built into green buildings, building energy efficiency will be steadily improved, building energy consumption structure will be gradually optimized, the growth trend of building energy consumption and carbon emission will be effectively controlled, and a green, low-carbon and circular construction and development mode will be basically formed, Lay a solid foundation for the carbon peak in the field of urban and rural construction by 2030. According to the plan, by 2025, more than 350 million square meters of energy-saving transformation of existing buildings will be completed, more than 50 million square meters of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be built, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, and the application area of geothermal energy buildings will be more than 100 million square meters, The replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings reached 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption exceeded 55%. (official website of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development)
Risk warning: government expenditure is less than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The scope of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has expanded.
