Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: speed up the restructuring of the plastic pipe industry in the trough period
Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) the business dilemma of introducing major shareholders is expected to reverse: the company’s plastic pipe output will be 175800 tons in 2020, accounting for 1.08% of the total output of the industry. Due to the fierce competition in the engineering plastic pipe industry, the gross profit margin of the company is low, which is only 17.79% in 2020, with a net loss of 249 million yuan. The loss will further expand in 2021, and major changes are urgently needed. The company plans to increase 165900 shares to wanyang group, and the controlling shareholder of the company has changed. Wanyang group is an integrated enterprise for the development, operation and service of manufacturing industrial park. It is one of the top 500 private enterprises in China, with an existing property area of more than 70 million square meters. New shareholders are expected to inject fresh blood and new strength into the company, and Industrial Synergy is expected to gradually improve the operation quality of the company.
Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) significant acceleration of M & a capacity: Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) plans to acquire 100% equity of Kangtai group through additional issuance, and the total capacity is expected to increase from about 410000 tons to more than one million tons, ranking second in the industry. The increase of scale will boost the company’s market position, the procurement cost is expected to be reduced, and the production efficiency and technological innovation strength can be continuously improved through integration and coordination. At the same time, the company can significantly enhance its national influence by virtue of the position advantages of Kangtai group in southwest and East China, and its competitive position is expected to be significantly improved.
The three ministries and commissions printed and distributed the “14th five year plan” for raw material industry: the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the Ministry of natural resources printed and distributed the “14th five year plan” for raw material industry, pointing out that the development of raw material industry should achieve high-end, rationalization, greening, digitization and safety. The green and efficient development of the building materials industry during the “14th five year plan” is expected to accelerate again. The planning requires to continue to implement the capacity replacement policy of cement and flat glass, speed up energy-saving transformation, strengthen energy-saving supervision and promote green and low-carbon development. The plan points out that it is necessary to cultivate leading enterprises in the industrial chain and promote centralized development. The concentration of glass and refractory industries is still low and is expected to benefit. In addition, the waterproof and thermal insulation material industry will promote the establishment of a full life cycle quality control and traceability mechanism, and modify the standards, so that high-quality development can be expected.
Key sub industry tracking:
Glass: as of December 31, the national average price of glass was 2150.38 yuan / ton, down 1.67% month on month compared with the previous week. The spot demand in the off-season was weak, and the price continued to fall slightly. The downstream processing plants have some demand for rush work, mainly to digest the final orders. Due to the great capital pressure this year, they are not willing to increase inventory. Futures prices were significantly down stimulated by the growth of factories and warehouses. The total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 35.17 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.69% over last week. The manufacturer’s inventory continued to rise and entered the seasonal accumulation period. On the supply side, we expect that the contraction will accelerate in the next quarter or two, and the glass price will still have strong support in the medium and long term. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay close attention to the stimulation of supply side contraction on the plate. We will continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) integrated leading Lutheran glass, which has entered a new growth period and has continuously increased its market share.
Cement: according to Zhuo Chuang information, as of December 31, 2021, the national average price of cement was 493.5 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from last week and up 7.94% from last year. In winter, the marginal demand of cement terminal is down, and the operating rate will continue to decline due to the influence of staggered peak production in heating season and environmental protection control. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of enterprises has dropped. The average national clinker storage capacity ratio is 55.26%, down 2.06% compared with the previous week. The follow-up market will focus on de inventory, and the price center will still move down gradually. However, we still need to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expected improvement of infrastructure. We first promote Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) in the cement industry and Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) in the logic improvement of beneficiary areas.
Consumer building materials: Valuation repair is expected to continue. Last week, the consumer building materials sector performed well, and the expected improvement at both ends of housing and infrastructure continued to boost the leading expectation of consumer building materials. Lengthening the time line, the logic that the market share of consumer building materials enterprises continues to increase is still the main line of investment in the building materials industry, and the growth attribute of the industry leader has not changed. Continue to recommend the consumption of building materials leaders Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) . Market review: as of the closing on December 31, the building materials sector rose 1.32% and the CSI 300 index rose 0.39%. From the sector ranking, the building materials sector ranked 18th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week, with an increase of 4.46% year to date, ranking 16th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan.
The top five stocks rose: Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) , Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) .
The top five stocks fell: Fsilon Furnishing And Construction Materials Corporation(605318) , Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Zhengwei new material, Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) .
Investment strategy: focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with high prosperity in traditional business and entering a new growth period, Xinyi Glass, an industrial leader with continuously improved market share, and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) with dominant consumption attributes in building materials. It is recommended to focus on the cement driven by the expected warming of infrastructure and the improvement of profitability. China Liansu, a plastic pipe leader, is recommended.
Risk tip: the demand of real estate chain declines, infrastructure investment slows down, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
