The coal mine supply and Development Commission will gradually speed up the handling of the formalities for the reform and development of coal mine production to a historical high level. At present, the daily output of coal in China has recovered to more than 12 million tons, basically returning to the high level before the festival, and the daily output of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has remained more than 9 million tons. The high output has boosted the continuous increase of coal market supply, and the storage level of coal yard in northern ports has been further improved. The coal storage of national unified dispatching power plant is still 149 million tons, an increase of more than 30 million tons over the same period last year, and the available days have reached 22 days. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has held several special meetings to sort out the coal mines with limited capacity release one by one in view of the problems existing in the formalities handling of some coal mines, and speed up the handling progress of procedures such as capacity increase, land use and grass, environmental impact assessment, planning adjustment and mining right change. As of March 9, more than 80% of the guaranteed coal mines in China have completed on-site verification, More than 95% have obtained the approval of forest and grass use, and the general planning adjustment of the mining area, project environmental assessment and mining right procedures are being accelerated.
From January to February, the imported coal decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the average import price rose sharply by 101 US dollars / ton year-on-year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 7, China imported 35.391 million tons of coal from January to February 2022, a decrease of 5.739 million tons or 14% from 41.13 million tons in the same period last year. The cumulative import volume from January to February was US $5.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 121.5%, and the price of imported coal increased. According to this calculation, the import unit price from January to February was 165.59 US dollars / ton, an increase of 101.93 US dollars / ton year-on-year. The average import price in December 2021 was 171.78 US dollars / ton, while the average market price of 5500k thermal coal in Qinhuangdao from January to February was 961 yuan / ton. The imported coal is mainly affected by the international situation. The price rises sharply, the price advantage is gone, and the import quantity decreases significantly. At the same time, the reduction of the import quantity causes the import demand to occupy China's trade share, supporting China's high coal price.
The coal price is still at a high level, and the performance of coal enterprises is determined, with obvious advantages in allocation. Recently, the overseas situation has been turbulent, energy prices have been soaring, and the upside down of imported coal prices has led to China's high coal prices. The downward trend of imported coal is expected to be difficult to improve significantly in the short term. At the same time, China's security problems are more prominent from January to February. We believe that after the release of coal production reached last year's peak level in the short term, the policy of nuclear production has improved significantly, However, there is still a certain lag, and the space for substantial growth is limited. In particular, the market share of coal is tight due to the full guarantee of coal for electricity, and the short-term price will still be at a high level. At present, the performance of Qinhuangdao port and high coal price coal enterprises in the first quarter is expected to increase significantly, and the annual profit of the industry is highly uncertain. At present, the overall valuation level of the industry is still in a relatively low position, which is optimistic about the improvement of the long-term valuation Center, the undervalued value is high, and the allocation advantage of the dividend industry is obvious.
Investment suggestion: recommend power coal leader Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Gansu Power Coal leader Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) .
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, impact of extreme weather and coal policy are not as expected.
