Epidemic situation tracking: the national epidemic prevention is generally stable, and the local epidemic situation in Xi'an is still in the key stage of confrontation
On the afternoon of January 2, Xi'an held a press conference on the prevention and control of covid-19 pneumonia. Chen Baozhong, director of Xi'an CDC, introduced that from the data of recent rounds of nucleic acid screening, there is still a certain proportion of cases detected from the community, the risk of community transmission still exists, and the local epidemic situation in Xi'an is in a key stage of confrontation. On January 1, there were 123 newly confirmed cases in Xi'an, the lowest in recent 8 days. The epidemic situation may be approaching the inflection point, which proves that the existing epidemic prevention system and clearance policy are effective, the overall epidemic prevention situation in the country is good, and the overall economic operation has not fluctuated greatly due to this round of epidemic situation.
Duty free sector: duty free shops with Chinese characteristics are planned to be built in the 14th five year plan, and the throughput of Meilan Airport rebounded month on month
The Ministry of Commerce and other 22 departments issued the "14th five year plan" for China's trade development, proposed to improve the policy of duty-free stores in the city, and planned to build a number of duty-free stores with Chinese characteristics. According to the official microblog of Haikou Meilan International Airport, Meilan Airport is expected to have 462 inbound and outbound flights and 62016 passengers on December 31, 2021, which is close to the average level at the end of 2020 (67000 passengers per day in ten days at the end of 2020). According to the calculation of the data source, Meilan Airport transported 1448900 passengers in December 2021, up 26.33% month on month compared with 1146900 passengers in November 2021, and the passenger flow rebounded significantly. At present China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) the competition pattern, supply chain advantages and business model have not changed, and the competition pattern of the track has not been destroyed. We believe that the epidemic has not had a great impact on the profit logic. As long as the passenger flow in 2021q4 Hainan recovers, the company's 2021q4 revenue and profit are worth looking forward to. 2022q1 peak season is approaching, and the medium free long-term value will not decrease.
Hotel sector: travel bookings will peak this week, and the demand of the wine and tourism industry is expected to further boost during the new year's Day holiday
In the past week, the hotel reservation volume of flying pig platform on New Year's day has increased by 128% over the previous week. The big data of the same journey travel platform also shows that the average price of hotels nationwide during the new year's Day holiday in 2021 has increased by 12% year-on-year, of which local accommodation orders account for more than 45%. In addition, theme resorts around Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and other cities are popular with young tourists. The report of flying pig shows that among the people who book a trip on New Year's day, the post-90s and post-00s account for more than 70%; Tujia's data also shows that in the new year's Day holiday in 2022, the post-90s and post-00s have sprung up and occupied the mainstream position, of which the post-00s young customers account for 47% of the total number and the post-95s customers account for more than 20%. In addition, during the new year's day this year, the average price of B & B in the suburbs of Beijing increased by 70%. The post-95 and Post-00 accounted for about 67% of the B & B bookings. Among them, the online Red B & B bookings with relatively young and fashionable decoration style accounted for 10% of the total orders of young users, and the adventure experience B & B accounted for 19% of the total orders of young users.
This week's view
The epidemic repeatedly brought short-term pressure to the tourism sector and did not change the pattern of long-term shock recovery. It is suggested to pay attention to the tax-free plate ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) and anti cyclical attribute plate ( Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) ) with stable industry pattern and prominent leading barriers, as well as the hotel plate ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ) and scenic spot plate ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) ) with clear medium-term recovery logic.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation; Risk of intensified industry competition; The landing of new projects / products is less than the expected risk; Food safety risks; Risk of major teaching accidents.
