Talk every Monday: RCEP agreement comes into force, which is conducive to optimizing the textile and clothing industry chain
Event: RCEP agreement came into force on January 1, 2022. On December 30, 2021, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference and proposed that the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) will officially enter into force on January 1, 2022 for six ASEAN member states including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam and four non ASEAN member states including China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia. South Korea will also join the implementation on February 1. The effective implementation of RCEP marks the official landing of the free trade zone with the largest population, the largest economic and trade scale and the most development potential in the world.
After the agreement comes into force, more than 90% of the trade in goods in the region will gradually achieve zero tariff. On January 1, 2022, the proportion of immediate zero tariff between China and ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand will exceed 65%, the proportion of immediate zero tariff with South Korea will reach 39% and 50%, and the proportion of immediate zero tariff with Japan will reach 25% and 57% respectively. Finally, 86% of Japan's products exported to China will achieve zero tariff, At the same time, 88% of China's products exported to Japan will enjoy zero tariff treatment.
As the largest free trade zone in the world, RCEP agreement has a wide impact. The RCEP agreement covers a market with a population of 2.2 billion (accounting for nearly 30% of the world), a GDP of $26.2 trillion (accounting for about 30% of the world) and nearly 28% of Global trade (based on 2019 data). According to statistics, by 2030, RCEP is expected to drive a net increase in exports of member states of US $519 billion and a net increase in national income of US $186 billion. After RCEP takes effect, nearly 30% of China's exports can achieve zero tariff treatment, covering China's trade volume of US $1.4 trillion.
The implementation of RCEP is conducive to the optimization of the industrial chain of textile and garment industry. In the first three quarters of 2021, the total value of China's imports and exports to 14 other RCEP member countries was 8.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, accounting for 31.1% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the total export volume was 4.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%; The total import volume was 4.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. From the perspective of textile and garment manufacturing industry, the implementation of RCEP will help China and other allied countries complement each other's industrial advantages, optimize resource allocation, promote the further development of industrial chain, and then expand the scale of intra regional trade.
Market review (December 27 - December 31):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry rose 4.31% this week, ranking fourth among the Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the packaging and printing sector performed better, up 6.56%, and the paper sector performed worse, up 1.56%; The textile and garment industry rose 2.81% this week, ranking 12th among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the textile manufacturing sector rose 3.39%, the clothing and home textile sector rose 2.44%, and the jewelry sector rose 2.84%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of wood this week is basically the same as that last week, and the prices of TDI and MDI have increased
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on December 31, the market price of coniferous pulp was 6039.64 yuan / ton, up 3.02% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 5087.5 yuan / ton, up 2.12% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 6091.67 yuan / ton, up 0.14% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 4466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.52% from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on December 31, the market price of corrugated paper was 3881.25 yuan / ton, down 0.50% from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 6099.29 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on December 31, the market price of double copper paper was 5390 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on December 31 was 6408.333 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on December 31, the price of cotton was 22015.38 Yuan / ton, up 0.50% over last week; The price of yarn has decreased and the price of polyester has increased.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy of the real estate industry tends to be relaxed. The national development and Reform Commission supports "furniture to the countryside" and encourages the implementation of furniture to the countryside subsidies. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector in the near future, and we suggest paying attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; Software home is recommended to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
