\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Event: the revenue in 2021 increased by 80.1% year-on-year, and the revenue from January to February 2022 increased by 203.1% year-on-year
The company issued the annual performance express of 2021 and the announcement of main operating data from January to February 2022: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 9.155 billion yuan (+ 80.1%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.228 billion yuan (+ 21.2%); From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.319 billion yuan (+ 203.1%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 218 million yuan (+ 36.0%). We believe that the gold jewelry industry shows a high boom. The company’s channel side further promotes the provincial generation model, improves the product matrix and improves the brand strength, which is expected to promote the steady growth of revenue and profit. Considering the impact of epidemic and other factors, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.228 (- 1.22) / 15.11 (- 1.60) / 1.865 (- 162) billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 112 (- 0.11) / 1.38 (- 0.15) / 1.70 (- 0.15) yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 13.4/10.9/8.8 times. The valuation is reasonable and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
In 2021, the Provincial Service Center (provincial agent) business was officially launched to stimulate the growth momentum of enterprises in multiple directions
Facing the complex external environment, the company officially launched the Provincial Service Center (provincial agent) business in 2021. Through the provincial representative, the company carried out gold exhibition and sales business, provided financial support for franchisees, adjusted the income structure of gold products, and contributed to the significant growth of gold category sales in the second half of 2021; In addition, the provincial representative also provides empowerment in many aspects, such as channel expansion, breakthrough in commanding heights, management and operation. However, in the short term, there are also some running in problems in the provincial agency business. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 2.682 billion yuan (+ 54.6%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 223 million yuan (- 26.1%), and some non operating profits and losses and the epidemic have an impact on the short-term performance. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 203.1% in revenue and 36.0% in net profit attributable to the parent company, returning to high growth.
The channel expansion has accelerated significantly, the product R & D has been continuously improved, and the brand potential has been continuously strengthened
Channels: during the reporting period, the company added 313 stores, and the total number of stores at the end of the period reached 4502, which was significantly faster than that in 2020 (178). The company has steadily promoted the provincial representative model, improved the efficiency of supply chain operation and capital turnover, and stimulated the vitality of channel development. Products: continuously improve the scene style jewelry system, promote the big diamond empowerment project, develop ” Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) extraordinary ancient gold series”, and build a gold product system of “one child, two flowers and three students”. In terms of brand: the company has continuously innovated marketing means, launched community marketing, private domain marketing, SCRM, cloud store and other methods, accelerated Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration, promoted refined operation of terminal stores and continuously strengthened brand potential.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated, the industry competition is intensified, and the promotion effect of the provincial generation model is not as good as expected
