Market performance:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index + 0.60% this week, closing at 3639.78; Gem means + 0.78% this week, closing at 3322.67 points; CSI 300 + 0.39% this week, closing at 4940.37. The real estate sector + 0.65%, ranking 21st among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 11.5% year-on-year and – 7.7% month on month
This week (12.24-12.30), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focused on tracking was about 3.96 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of – 7.7%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 1.05 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 22.0% and a month on month increase of – 3.2%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 2.15 million m3, a year-on-year increase of + 23.5% and a month on month increase of – 12.1%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 760000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.2% and a month on month increase of + 0.3%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 29.9% year-on-year and + 3.4% month on month
This week (12.24-12.30), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focused on tracking was about 970000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 29.9% and a month on month increase of + 3.4%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 420000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.7% and a month on month increase of + 18.8%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 380000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.5% and a month on month increase of – 3.3%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 160000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.4% and a month on month increase of – 12.0%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was – 4.83% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 10.7 months
As of December 30, 2021, this week, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking was about 90.92 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 4.83%. The overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about 10.7 months. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 28.93 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 5.48%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.2 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) is 30.18 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 9.51%, and the decontamination cycle is 8.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) is 31.81 million m3, a month on month increase of + 0.75%, and the decontamination cycle is 22.6 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 41.86 million m3, the total land transaction price is 202.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 3.32%
Last week (12.20-12.26), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 228, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 16.79 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 476, with the corresponding land construction area of about 41.86 million m3, the total land transaction price is about 202.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 3.32%. Among them, the land transaction and construction area of the first, second and third tier cities were 1.52 million m3, 21.87 million m3 and 18.47 million m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 15%, – 43% and – 78% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rates were + 0.15%, + 3.83% and + 3.90% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, Kerry released the top 100 sales list of Chinese real estate enterprises from January to December 2021. The full caliber sales amount of the top 100 in December was – 36.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.3 percentage points higher than the previous value; From January to December, the year-on-year growth rate of full caliber cumulative sales amount decreased by 5.0 percentage points to – 3.2% compared with the previous value. From the perspective of equity, the equity sales amount of the top 100 in December was – 38.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.1pct compared with the previous value; From January to December, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative equity sales decreased by 4.9 percentage points to – 6.1%. In December, the single month equity caliber and full caliber slowdown narrowed, but the year-on-year decline was still too large.
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large-scale expansion is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Looking back, the low base effect subsided, the Q4 fundamentals were under pressure, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
