Report summary:
The 154 environmental protection and public utility stocks we tracked lost 0.63 percentage points to the Shanghai index this week and outperformed the Shanghai index by 25.15 percentage points since the beginning of the year. This week Vontron Technology Co.Ltd(000920) , Qianjiang Water Resources Development Co; Ltd(600283) , Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) increased by 15.13%, 12.24% and 10.27% respectively, showing good performance; Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co.Ltd(000720) , Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) fell by 20.86%, 16.27% and 13.01% respectively, showing poor performance.
China’s lithium carbonate rose by more than 20000 yuan / ton in a single week, driving the rise of the East Asian market.
According to SMM data, as of Friday (December 31), the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 275000 yuan / ton, up 21000 yuan / ton month on month; The quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 253500 yuan / ton, up 17500 yuan / ton month on month; The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide was 222500 yuan / ton, up 17500 yuan / ton month on month; The quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was 217000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 15000 yuan / ton. On December 30, fastmarkets evaluated the price of battery grade lithium hydroxide in China at RMB 23000-245000 / T, up by RMB 22500 / T month on month; The quotation for battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 275000-29000 yuan / ton, up 22500 yuan / ton month on month. During this week, the supply and demand of battery grade lithium carbonate in China continued to be unbalanced, supporting the continuous rise of prices, with a range of more than 20000 yuan / ton last week. In the future, it is expected that the price will still rise against the background of insufficient supply at the end of the year. The price of lithium hydroxide increased, mainly because some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers purchased battery grade lithium hydroxide and processed it into battery grade lithium carbonate, driving the demand for battery grade lithium hydroxide. Fastmarkets evaluated the CIF price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China, Japan and South Korea at US $34-36 / kg, an increase of US $0.5/kg compared with last week; The CIF evaluation price of battery grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan and South Korea is US $32-34 / kg, up US $2 / kg from last week. Mainly due to tight supply, lithium salt prices in the Chinese market have strengthened, pushing up lithium prices in the East Asian shipping market.
We will promote the release of guidance on the “double carbon” work of central enterprises and clarify the double carbon objectives of central enterprises.
Recently, SASAC issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization (hereinafter referred to as the guidance). The guidance points out the dual carbon goals of central enterprises by 2025 and 2030, that is, by 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10000 yuan output value of central enterprises will be 15% lower than that in 2020, the carbon dioxide emission of 10000 yuan output value will be 18% lower than that in 2020, the installed proportion of renewable energy power generation will reach more than 50%, and the revenue proportion of strategic emerging industries will not be less than 30%, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peak. By 2030, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10000 yuan output value of central enterprises will be greatly reduced, and the carbon dioxide emission of 10000 yuan output value will be reduced by more than 65% compared with 2005. The guidance defines the dual carbon goal of central enterprises, gives full play to the responsibility of central enterprises, actively participates in the carbon peak action, takes the lead in fulfilling social responsibilities, promotes the green transformation of production mode, and plays a leading and exemplary role. In the process of achieving the “double carbon” goal, central enterprises will accelerate the transformation of energy structure and use clean and low-carbon energy, which will help accelerate the development and utilization of green and clean energy and promote the rapid development of new energy industry.
The price of thermal coal continues the downward trend, and the future price will remain weak.
This week, the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal market continued a weak downward trend. In terms of place of origin, near the end of the year, the awareness of coal mine safety production has been strengthened. The impact of equipment maintenance after the completion of annual production tasks of some coal mines is superimposed, and the coal supply in the main production areas has been slightly tightened; However, the purchase price of the new phase of large coal enterprises continued to decline, the downstream users had a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand side was still weak, the coal mine shipment speed slowed down, the inventory increased, and the price continued to be the main behavior below. In terms of downstream demand, the daily consumption of downstream power plants was relatively stable this week, with little change. Under the influence of supply guarantee policy, the inventory continued to operate at a high level, and the available days of inventory of some power plants in Shandong remained around 30 days; Affected by the continuous downward trend of coal price, downstream users are more wait-and-see, have strong mood, and have low enthusiasm for procurement, so the procurement plan is postponed.
The average price of LNG in China rebounded in shock and the natural gas in the United States fluctuated
This week, China’s average LNG price rebounded from shock. In terms of supply, the output of China’s LNG plants decreased month on month, and the arrival volume of sea and gas also decreased month on month compared with last week. The supply of “sea and land” gas was tightened. In terms of demand, after China’s recent cooling down, the market demand for gas storage has increased. In addition, the high-speed transportation of dangerous chemical vehicles during small and long holidays is limited, and downstream users mostly take pre Festival replenishment. However, due to the impact of public health events in some areas, the supply and demand are weak, and China’s average LNG price fluctuated and rebounded this week. LNG supply or change is limited next week, and demand may be weak. Due to the high-speed traffic restriction during the holidays, the LNG market is lack of activity. However, due to the decline of factory operating load in the early stage and the phased profit transfer shipment, at present, the liquid level of most LNG plants is within the controllable range, and it is unlikely that the price will fluctuate sharply during the new year’s day. It is expected that the LNG market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future. The US natural gas market fluctuated in this cycle. The main reason for the rise in the market during the cycle is that some meteorological institutions predict that there will be cooling weather in the United States in the next two weeks, and the export of the United States is OK recently, which stimulates the market to rise; The decline in the market during the cycle was mainly caused by the sharp decline in European natural gas prices and the light market trading during the Christmas holiday. After Christmas, the activity of natural gas trading in the United States will rise, which will give some support to the market. The US natural gas market is expected to run at a high level in the short term.
Investment advice
At present, countries all over the world regard lithium resources as strategic mineral resources. It is very important to ensure the supply security of lithium metal minerals and establish a local supply chain. At the same time, with the continuous rise in the price of lithium concentrate, the profits of non integrated lithium salt processing enterprises are gradually thinning, and the profits have largely moved to the resource side. A typical example is aokuang, which is highly dependent on China’s lithium salt processing plants. In the last cycle, it only earned 30% of the profits of the industrial chain, and 70% – 80% of the profits in this cycle have been transferred to aokuang, which just confirms aokuang’s expectation that the profits of this cycle and China’s lithium salt plants will open at the beginning of the year. Under the current background, the competitiveness of integrated enterprises with upstream resource guarantee and incremental resources is obviously stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the ongoing Lijiagou spodumene mining and beneficiation project. In the future, it will join hands with Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop the lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA. The beneficiary targets include [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ] which is promoting the 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project in yuanyangba. The greenbushes mine will increase production in the next five years and can achieve a large output of [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ] through OEM, In 2022 [ Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ] with good performance of potash fertilizer and lithium salt is expected to be completed [ Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ] by the middle of this year.
In the process of accelerating the transformation of energy structure to green and low-carbon, the installed capacity of new energy is expected to grow rapidly, and new energy operators benefit from the increase of scale, the improvement of operation efficiency and the thickening of performance. We recommend paying attention to the new energy target of thermal power transformation [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]; At the same time, [ Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ] and [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] new energy operation power stations have benefited, and the Hong Kong stock targets have benefited from [Longyuan Power], [China Resources Power] and [China power].
Waste incineration is an industry encouraged and supported by the national industrial policy. Promoting the integrated construction and professional operation of urban domestic waste treatment facilities is the development trend of the industry, and the professional waste treatment service providers providing integrated investment, construction and operation services will have a competitive advantage. Under the policy background of “carbon neutralization and carbon peak”, the waste incineration power generation project will continue to benefit. We recommend paying attention to the leading waste incineration projects [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ] and [ Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) ].
Risk statement
1) The implementation of carbon neutralization related policies is less than expected;
2) The demand for thermal coal and natural gas decreased seasonally;
3) Major changes in power policy;
4) The development progress of lithium mine in Sichuan is less than expected.
