\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 536 3Peak Incorporated(688536) )
Events
On the evening of March 13, the company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 1.326 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 134.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.32%; The net profit was RMB 12.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%. Excluding the impact of share based payment expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 587 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180.41%.
Brief comment
1. The revenue in the fourth quarter hit a record high, and the change of product structure led to a slight decline in gross profit margin. In 2021q4, the company’s revenue reached 435 million yuan, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 290.17% and a month on month increase of 7.14%, maintaining the momentum of rapid growth. In 2021, the sales of signal chain chip products continued to increase, with a revenue of 1.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.63%; The new products of power management chips were in large quantities, and the revenue increased significantly to 298 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127627%. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 60.53%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of power management chip products with relatively low gross profit margin. Among them, the gross profit margin of signal chain chip products was 63.48%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.98pct; The gross profit margin of power management chip products was 50.37%, with a year-on-year increase of 21.13pct, mainly due to the launch of new products and the increase in the sales of some high-performance products.
2. Continue to increase R & D investment, and share based payment leads to short-term pressure on expenses and long-term improvement. In 2021, the company invested 301 million yuan in R & D, with a year-on-year increase of 145.60%. R & D investment accounted for 22.70% of revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 1.07pct. By the end of 2021, the company had 275 R & D personnel, a year-on-year increase of 95.04% over 141 at the end of 2020; R & D personnel accounted for 69.62%, an increase of 4.04 PCT year-on-year. The number and quality of R & D personnel increased rapidly, laying a solid foundation for product and technological innovation. In November 2021, the company launched a restricted stock incentive plan for 259 people (accounting for 65.404% of the total number of the company), realizing the binding of employees’ interests and shareholders’ interests, which is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The share based payment of equity incentive in 2020 and 2021 led to short-term pressure on expenses. In 2021, the proportion of sales expenses in revenue was 4.26%, an increase of 0.16pct year-on-year; Administrative expenses accounted for 4.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.08pct.
3. The item number increases rapidly, and the product structure and customer structure are more balanced.
By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1600 product models, an increase of more than 400 compared with 2020. The company’s product structure is gradually balanced, with signal chain products accounting for 77.51% and power management products accounting for 22.49%. On the one hand, the company has continuously launched new products in the field of signal chain. New products of signal chain such as closed-loop Hall current detection, high-precision digital to analog converter and can interface have been mass produced, which are widely used in the fields of optical communication, automatic test equipment and industrial control in China; On the other hand, in the field of power management chips, the introduction and mass production of linear regulated power supply, battery linear charging chips and other products have been realized, which has greatly increased the income of power products. In addition, the company has increased investment in embedded processor and vehicle regulation and isolation technology, and the first automotive high-voltage precision amplifier (tpa1882q) has been supplied in batch; The first multi-channel digital isolator has been mass produced and is expected to become a new performance growth point.
The company’s customer structure continued to optimize, and the proportion of the top five customers continued to decline. In 2021, the income of the top five customers accounted for 67.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1pct. The income volume of the top three customers was close, reducing the dependence on big customers. The company’s products are widely used in 5g communication, industrial intelligent manufacturing, high-definition security, intelligent driving and other fields, and the diversification trend of customer types is obvious.
4. The demand of analog chip industry is strong, and localization continues to promote, and the company is expected to benefit.
According to WSTS data, the global market scale of analog chips in 2021 was US $72.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% compared with us $55.66 billion in 2020. With the gradual release of production capacity in 2022, the market scale of analog chips is expected to increase by 8.8% to US $79.25 billion in 2022. As a bridge connecting the real world and the digital world, analog chips have gradually grown in size with the gradual advancement of the interconnection of all things. According to icinsights data, the annual compound growth rate of the global analog product market from 2021 to 2026 is expected to be 7.4%. Global analog chips are dominated by foreign enterprises. In 2020, the top ten analog chip suppliers in the world are foreign enterprises, accounting for about 62% of the market share. The self-sufficiency rate of analog chips in China is only about 15%. In the field of signal chain and high-end power management chips, the self-sufficiency rate is lower, and there is a huge space for import substitution. As a leading enterprise in China’s signal chain, the company is expected to benefit.
5. We suggest continuing to pay attention to the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
As the leader of China’s signal chain, the company’s power management products are growing in large quantities. In the future, the company will further strengthen the signal chain and power product line, layout embedded processors and vehicle regulation and isolation technology, and is expected to become a new performance growth point. The company actively promotes industrial investment and M & A (has participated in Beijing Shimao micro), develops both endogenous and extension, or is expected to move from the leader of signal chain to comprehensive simulation platform. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 592 million yuan and 903 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 84 and 57 times respectively; If the equity incentive fee is added back, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 920 million yuan and 1.06 billion yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current share price will be 54 and 47 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
6. Risk warning: market demand does not meet expectations; Risk of high concentration of customers and supply chain; Increased Sino US friction and other risks.
