\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 801 Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) )
The year ended steadily in 2021, and the annual revenue and net profit increased by 34% and 28% respectively year-on-year. The company released the performance express, and realized an operating revenue of 5.153 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%; The net profit was 506 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.84%, mainly due to the stable growth of kitchen cabinet income and the rapid growth of wardrobe income. In the second half of the year, under the background of high performance base, the company’s single quarter revenue still achieved rapid growth, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 109% / 36% / 23% / 25% respectively, the quarterly growth rate of profit fluctuated due to the change of business structure and the fluctuation of raw materials, and Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 net profit increased by 213% / 6% / 1% / 4% respectively. Reviewing the performance of the past six years, the company achieved rapid growth as a whole from 2015 to 2021, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent CAGR of 27.7% and 25% respectively.
The customization industry has broad space, and the company’s market share still has great room for improvement. According to the past increase rate of customization penetration rate and real estate sales data, it is estimated that the scale of customization industry will be close to 250 billion yuan in 2022, with a broad market space, corresponding to the overall customization penetration rate of about 42%. It is expected that the increase trend of customization penetration rate will continue in the future Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) in recent years, the market share of the company has increased rapidly. The market share of the company in the customized home industry has continuously increased from 1.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2021, but it is still significantly low. From the perspective of industry structure, the market of customization industry is still relatively scattered, CR7 is only about 20%, and the market share of the company still has great room for improvement in the future.
The dual category driven and multi-channel layout of cabinets and clothes has taken shape, which is expected to support future growth. After years of intensive cultivation of cabinets, the company began to focus on wardrobe in 2015, with remarkable results. The income of 9m21 wardrobe accounts for 36%. At the same time, it has expanded wooden doors, home accessories and other businesses, and has formed a multi category layout with wardrobe as the core. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the main growth point of the company is different from that of the past. After sufficient preparation in category and channel layout in recent years, there is still much room for the development of retail channels in the future: 1) there is still room for opening stores in distribution channels. At present, the number of single category stores of the company is less than 2000. By the end of September 2021, the company has cabinets, wardrobe There are 1717, 1597, 322 and 58 stores in Mumen and IK respectively, with a total of 3728 stores. In addition, with the integration of multiple categories and the promotion of supporting products business, it is expected that the pick-up volume of single wardrobe stores is still expected to increase steadily in the future; 2) In terms of decoration channels, cabinet enterprises have the first mover advantage. The company supports and promotes the cooperation between franchisees and regional decoration enterprises through strategic alliance with national large-scale decoration enterprises to create new channel growth points.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company focuses on R & D and sharing. Since 2012, it has implemented equity incentives for middle-level backbone, senior managers and core technicians for many times. The two phases of equity incentives after listing in late 2019 and early 2020 have also been successfully implemented, binding the interests of the core team and stimulating internal vitality. In 2020, the R & D expenditure rate will be 5.88%, and the proportion of R & D personnel in the total number will be 17.7%. A large amount of R & D investment will enhance the comprehensive competitiveness. Based on the improvement of the company’s current category, channel and capacity layout, there is still room for multi-point force, and we continue to be optimistic about the future growth path. In recent years, the proportion of dividends has continued to exceed 40%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 506 million yuan, 597 million yuan and 692 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, 18.1% and 16% respectively. At present, the share price corresponds to the PE of 2022 is 13.6x, and the “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous decline in real estate sales and sharp rise in raw material prices.
