\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 037 Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 830 million yuan, a significant increase of 152.0% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.4%.
The demand explosion promoted the substantial growth of revenue, and the improvement of operation efficiency led to the decrease of expense rate. 2021: 1) on the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of 830 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 152.0%. 2) From the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 80 million, with a year-on-year increase of 58.4%. Among them, the gross profit margin of the company was 38.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5pp; The net interest rate was 9.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5pp. 3) On the expense side, the company's sales expense ratio was 8.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6pp; The rate of administrative expenses was 11.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2pp; The R & D expense ratio was 11.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7pp.
In 2022, the capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry may reach 109.4 billion US dollars, and the growth momentum of the equipment industry is strong. According to IC insights, the capital expenditure of the global semiconductor industry reached US $153.9 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.1%. It is expected that the industry capital expenditure will reach US $190.4 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, maintaining a high growth trend. We expect that under the background of continuous substantial production expansion in the downstream, the demand of the semiconductor equipment industry will be strongly supported in 2022, and the equipment market space is expected to be further expanded.
The company's core technology continues to make breakthroughs, and the future growth space will be further opened. In terms of gluing and development, the company's offline equipment has achieved mass sales, i-line has passed the verification of some customers and began to enter mass production, KrF equipment has achieved customer ATP verification, and the company's gluing and developing machine has the strength of localization substitution. In terms of front cleaning, the company has obtained batch orders from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Shanghai Huali, Wuhan Xinxin, Shilan Jike, Yangjie technology, Qingdao Xinen, Shanghai Jita and other manufacturers, and the import progress of downstream customers is good.
The company has sufficient orders in hand and full capacity planning in the future. The company's gluing and developing equipment inventory increased by 145% year-on-year, and the single-chip wet equipment inventory increased by 277% year-on-year. The high inventory indicates that the company has sufficient orders on hand and has strong certainty in future revenue. In addition, the company's Caiyun road phase I plant is about to reach production capacity, and the capacity of Caiyun road phase II and port plant is actively under construction, so there is a strong guarantee for the capacity end in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company's EPS will be 1.73 yuan, 2.55 yuan and 3.49 yuan respectively, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach more than 55% in the next three years. Considering that the company is the leader in the field of glue coating and development in China, and the cleaning business is gradually growing in large quantities, we give the company 108 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 186.9 yuan, covering it for the first time, and give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the research and development of advanced process gluing development technology is not as expected; The R & D of in line technology of gluing and developing equipment is less than expected; Intensified competition in cleaning equipment market
