Report summary:
At the current time point, we recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) :
(1) With the target of expanding store space, Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : 1) the main brand has strengthened store opening in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and usher in an improvement in net interest rate with the commissioning of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
(2) High view bearing track target, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) Domestic business benefited from the policy of superposition and double reduction of epidemic situation, driving the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half in the future, and the superimposed net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
(3) The share of varieties is expected to increase, Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) : according to our analysis, the capacity utilization rate of Blum Vietnam plant has recovered to 90% in November, the price increase is smooth with the superposition of Q4, and the annual performance may exceed expectations. Blum's Chinese factories are mainly located in Yuyao and Zhenhai, Ningbo, Huai'an, Jiangsu, Zoucheng, Shandong, Hebei and other places (a total of 700000 ingots), and the orders of Ningbo factories can be transferred to other areas. According to our analysis, the Beilun epidemic has little impact on Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) .
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.40pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60%, the gem index rose 0.78%, and the SW textile and garment sector rose 2.00%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.40pct and the gem index by 1.22pct. Among them, SW clothing and home textile increased by 1.58% and SW textile manufacturing increased by 2.90%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 19.89. This week, high-end women's wear performed best, with an increase of 0.50%; Mother and child children performed the worst, with a decrease of 0.40%.
Market data tracking: China's cotton price index rose 0.32%
As of December 31, China's cotton 328 index was 22107 yuan / ton, up 0.73% this week. As of December 31, China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 20343 yuan / ton, up 3.92% this week. As of December 30, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 19729 yuan / ton, up 3.46% this week. On the whole, the price difference of cotton inside and outside this week was 1764 yuan / ton, which was 620 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of last week.
In November 2021, the completed housing area in China increased by 82.61% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 35.72 PCT compared with November; From January to November 2021, the total completed housing area in China increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 0.10pct compared with that from January to October. As a post cycle industry of the real estate industry chain, home textile is expected to benefit.
Industry news
French luxury brand Celine launched electric surfboards; Louis Vuitton launched the first ski series; The growth rate of Xinjiang cotton processing slowed down.
Risk statement
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
