\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Key points of announcement: the company released the performance express of 2021 and the operating data from January to February 2022, which is in line with our expectations. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 11.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.7%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.4%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 986 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71.6%. Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.616 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 64.9% and a month on month increase of + 24.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 292 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.3% and a month on month increase of – 0.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.5% and a month on month increase of – 10.8%. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64%.
The large volume of core t customers promoted the quarter on quarter growth of Q4 revenue in 2021. After deducting the impact of goodwill impairment, Q4 performance met expectations. In 2021, the top three customers of Q4 company, customer T / Geely Automobile / SAIC GM, achieved a total output of 106000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.4% and a month on month increase of + 37.5%. Among them, customer t achieved an output of 179000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 170.4% and a month on month increase of + 38.9%, and the supporting value of single vehicle was significantly higher than that of other customers, driving the revenue growth in the fourth quarter. After adding back the impairment of the company’s goodwill (46.65 million yuan), the company Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 339 million yuan and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent of 302 million yuan, which met the performance forecast range.
From January to February 2022, t customers maintained high production, and the company’s performance achieved year-on-year high growth. From January to February 2022, the company’s core t customers in China achieved an output of 123000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 154.7% and a month on month increase of – 0.2%. The company achieved high year-on-year growth in performance, in which the revenue was + 60% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 64% year-on-year.
New products and projects have been continuously promoted, and the integrated die casting has been successfully put into mass production: 1) the company continues to promote the R & D and verification of version 2.0 of integrated heat pump system assembly; 2) The new generation of intelligent braking system ibs-pro has successfully passed the customer’s acceptance in winter, and is expected to achieve mass production in 2022; 3) The first air suspension is officially completed and will be put into operation in mid-2022; 4) The 7200T integrated super large die-casting rear cabin cooperated with Gaohe automobile has successfully achieved mass production, and has become the first parts supplier of super large integrated aluminum alloy structural parts in China. With the continuous improvement of the production capacity of T customers outside China and the gradual increase of new customers such as Ford, rivian and AITO, as well as products such as automotive electronics, air suspension and integrated die casting, it is expected that the company’s revenue and profit will continue to maintain rapid growth and further release its performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the company’s new customers and new projects are expected to gradually increase in volume. We adjusted the company’s revenue forecast from 2021 to 2023 from 109.45/151.49/20.646 billion yuan to 114.38/170.18/22.643 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 75.7% / + 48.8% / + 33.1% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from RMB 1100 / 1632 / 2343 million to RMB 1045 / 1695 / 2362 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 66.4% / + 62.1% / + 39.4% respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.95/1.54/2.14 yuan and the corresponding PE is 57.2/35.3/25.3 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased less than expected.
