\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 535 Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) )
Optimize revenue structure and improve profitability
Integrated logistics achieved revenue of 701 million yuan (+ 22.22%); The supply chain distribution business achieved a revenue of 561 million yuan (+ 0.25%), the growth rate and proportion of comprehensive logistics revenue increased significantly, and the revenue structure was adjusted and optimized. The gross profit margin in 21 years is 26.5% (+ 2.4pct). 21q4 achieved revenue of 340 million yuan (+ 4.1%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 20 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%, mainly due to the active contraction of distribution business.
The commissioning progress of Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) Port Phase II project is lower than expected, and the performance is expected to increase rapidly in 2022
Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) Port Phase II project is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 22 years due to the rise of raw materials, repeated epidemics and government acceptance procedures. As one of the largest fully automated unmanned intelligent three-dimensional warehouses in the world, the operation of the project will help the vigorous development of the company's cross-border e-commerce logistics business; In terms of downstream customers, the company has deepened cooperation with Alibaba e-commerce platform, actively explored new customers such as Shein and lazada, and laid the foundation for the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics services. The performance is expected to grow rapidly in 2022.
Automobile industry chain logistics and duty-free logistics provide double growth points for the company's medium and long-term development
The company has vigorously expanded the logistics business in the automotive field and copied the business model of whole process supply chain integration to the auto parts business. Now it has reached cooperation with Zhongdu logistics of BAIC group and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) parts suppliers. At the same time, the company's (Hainan) multi-functional digital intelligence logistics center project has been put into construction, and the main project is expected to be completed this year. The logistics business advantages will further expand the field of duty-free logistics. As the international logistics center with the largest single area in Hainan, the company will also fully enjoy the development dividend of offshore duty-free market under the epidemic.
Profit forecast and Valuation: adjust the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating
The cross-border e-commerce industry of the company's main track maintains a high outlook, and Jiacheng fully benefits from the industry dividend with its excellent location factors and operation ability. Considering the construction period of the project and adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the company's revenue in 202224 will be RMB 1.762/23.88/2.909 billion, an increase of 38.87% / 35.53% / 21.78%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 302 / 4.33/549 million, an increase of 65.47% / 43.60% / 26.67%, the CAGR will be about 35% in the next three years, the EPS after additional issuance and dilution will be RMB 1.76/2.53/3.20, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current market value is 14.93/10.40/8.21x, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the construction speed of the project is slow; The prosperity of cross-border e-commerce decreased; Loss of key customers
