Key investment points:
The power supply and demand of the East and the West are mismatched, the UHV construction cycle is long, and the distributed photovoltaic is complementary to it. Due to the characteristics of population and industrial distribution, the power demand in eastern China is much greater than that in Western China, but the power supply mainly comes from western and Northern China with good natural resources. The UHV construction cycle is long, while the distributed construction cycle is short, convenient and flexible, and does not occupy land resources. It can quickly alleviate the power shortage in the eastern region and form an effective supplement with UHV.
Dual control of energy consumption and marketization of electricity price improve the willingness of industry and commerce to install. Under the dual control of energy consumption, some regions and enterprises are facing power and production restrictions. In order to fully start construction, high energy consuming enterprises are more willing to consume new energy. With the superposition of electricity price marketization, at present, the power supply is in tight balance, and the rising trend of electricity price is basically determined. Industrial and commercial owners are equipped with distributed photovoltaic for spontaneous self use and surplus electricity on the grid, which helps to reduce the power cost.
The expansion of silicon production drives the price reduction of the industrial chain and releases the downstream installation demand. Due to the slow production expansion cycle of silicon materials and production restriction of silicon materials enterprises, the price from silicon materials to components has remained high since the beginning of the year, resulting in lower than expected new installed capacity in 2021. In December 2021, the output of silicon material will be 49000 tons, an increase of 10% month on month; The prices of all links decreased. On December 30, the mainstream transaction prices of monocrystalline silicon material, M6 silicon wafer and monocrystalline 166 components were about 230 yuan / kg, 4.9 yuan / piece and 1.86 yuan / watt respectively, down 15.0%, 7.5% and 4.6% respectively compared with the beginning of December. It is estimated that under the constraints given in this report, the project yield will increase by about 1% for every 0.03 yuan decrease in component price. It is expected that the module price will usher in an inflection point in 2022, which will effectively promote the commencement of distributed photovoltaic enterprises, release incremental installation and non commencement installation recorded in the early stage.
Compared with centralized power stations, distributed PV is more profitable. Distributed PV does not need to occupy a lot of land resources, and does not need to be equipped with step-up facilities and long-distance transmission lines. The unit power cost is about 10% lower than that of centralized power stations. In addition, although China's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) resources are unevenly distributed, many areas where Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) resources are relatively scarce have strong power demand, resulting in high electricity prices, so profitability is guaranteed. It is estimated that under the assumption of an installed cost of 3.5 yuan / W and sufficient consumption, the internal rate of return of distributed photovoltaic can reach more than 6.5% in most parts of China, and there is room for further improvement as the installed cost decreases.
The whole county promotes the rapid expansion of the market. According to the county's average installed capacity of 200MW, the average annual installed capacity in the next two years will reach 50gw, the theoretical market capacity will exceed 1000gw, and the whole county will promote the potential installed capacity of about 455gw. At present, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed is only 94gw, and the growth space is very broad. With the promotion of the whole county, the share is more concentrated to the head. The business model of "state-owned enterprises + private enterprises" cooperative development and sale / purchase of stock power station assets promotes the asset light transformation of private enterprises.
Investment suggestion: distributed PV is in line with the basic direction of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) layout. The price of silicon material is down and the policy is constantly overweight. We are optimistic about the future development of distributed PV and maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry. It is recommended to focus on distributed photovoltaic enterprises with leading market share and large business volume or profit improvement. In terms of specific targets, it is recommended to focus on [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ] [ Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) ] [ Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ] with a large scale in the distributed photovoltaic field and a good promotion situation in the whole county, distribute the distributed state-owned enterprises [ China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) ] and the dominant EPC provider [ Shanghai Nenghui Technology Co.Ltd(301046) ] in Guizhou; Focus on [Skyworth Group], which is transformed by household appliance enterprises and has leading channel advantages; Pay attention to [ Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) ] provider of modular small power station and BIPV integration scheme and [ Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ] dedicated to precision industry and Commerce roof photovoltaic; Pay attention to [Ganghua gas] that injects photovoltaic assets and opens the second growth curve and [ Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) ] that invests in subsidiaries to expand photovoltaic business; Pay attention to the transformation from EPC to EPCO, carry out energy digital transformation [ Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) ] and the coordinated development from distribution end business to distributed photovoltaic development [ Shijiazhuang Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(603050) ]; Pay attention to [ Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ], which carries out PV module production and distributed power station business at the same time; Focus on household photovoltaic support and [ Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) ] driven by two wheels of EPC business.
Risk tip: focus on the risk that the company's future performance is less than expected, the risk of policy change, the less than expected demand for installed capacity, the risk of price fluctuation of upstream raw materials, the less than expected progress of the whole county, and the construction of distribution network can not meet the significantly increased distributed installed capacity.
