This week’s view
[Baijiu]: high expectations of normal callbacks, start a good fight to fight in the middle.
Plate review: normal callback under high expectation at the end of the year, and 22q1 is expected to make a good start
December 27th ~12 31, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.39%, food and beverage sector fell 4.65%, Baijiu plate rose below the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, down 5.93%. Specific Baijiu plate, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (+2.71%), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (+0.13%) rose the top, while the Baijiu plate in the week to usher in a larger adjustment, the main reason is currently in the basic good for the better, but the expected higher stage, trend capital game Moutai price rise time superimposed higher or higher, making the plate stage fluctuations. We believe that: 1) in the short term, the recent fluctuation is the normal fluctuation under the large increase of the plate in the early stage. We are still firmly optimistic about the good start of 22q1, and believe that the correction is a good time to add and match; 2) Baijiu Baijiu continued to improve in the medium term, and dynamic differentiation within the plate continued to deduce: in 2022, the liquor industry boom was still in existence, the absolute value of liquor enterprises will steadily increase under the main line of price increase, usher in a higher quality development, the Baijiu industry or usher in “structural cattle”, and the dynamic differentiation of the plate will continue to deduce.
Payment progress: when the wine enterprises start off well, the progress is generally faster than that in previous years
Benefiting from the price increase tide before the Spring Festival peak season, superimposed with goods control and other measures, the dealer inventory was generally low at the end of the year + the wholesale price remained stable and positive + the channel confidence was positive, laying the foundation for the realization of a good start in 2022. In addition, since the Spring Festival in 2022 is earlier than in previous years, the winery opened the Spring Festival payment earlier than in previous years. Maowulu and other major wine enterprises have opened the payment at the end of 2021. We will focus on the payment progress and dynamic sales in January:
1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : some dealers have completed the payment collection in January 22 before the new year’s Day festival, and some large dealers have completed the payment collection in the first quarter. The proportion of payment before the festival is expected to be about 25%.
2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : at the end of 21, the company raised the comprehensive cost price to 969 yuan. When the dealers paid before the festival, some major merchants had completed the annual payment, and some regions reported that the proportion of payment before the festival was expected to be 40% +.
3) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : at the end of 21, the company raised the supply prices of Guojiao, Tequ and other terminals. At the same time, it tentatively received the orders of Laojiao touqu series last week and adjusted the 60 year price system of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Jiaoling liquor. When the payment is made before the festival, it is expected that the payment progress has been more than half;
4) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : when the dealer makes payment before the festival, the company’s pre Festival payment collection ratio is expected to be about 40% +;
5) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : part of the company’s new Invoicing demand in the fourth quarter will be included in the sales task of the next year. In November, the dealer has started to make payment before the festival, and the pre Festival payment collection ratio is expected to be about 40-50%, faster than that in previous years;
6) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : at the end of the year, the invoicing of main products will be stopped. When the dealers make payment before the festival, it is expected that the collection ratio before the festival will be about 30-40%;
7) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) : it is expected that this year will have a good start, and the policy is basically the same as that of previous years. It is expected that the collection ratio before the festival will be about 40%;
8) Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) : when dealers make payment before the festival, it is expected that the collection ratio before the festival is about 30% +;
9) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : when dealers make payment before the festival, the proportion of internal participation and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) payment is expected to be 40% +, 35% +, faster than in previous years;
10) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : in December, the company was willing to raise the price of taste and wisdom, and stopped the goods of Tuopai. At the same time, it was willing to sell old wine and Tuopai old wine in Chengdu last week. The proportion of feedback payment in some core regions is expected to reach 40%.
11) Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : at present, the inventory of the old collection has been basically emptied, and the new collection has not arrived yet. Group purchase investment is in progress; The company has no clear requirements for a good start, the inventory is generally low, and the proportion of payment feedback from some channels is about 30%.
12) Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) : the Spring Festival payment and goods preparation has been started. Most dealers have completed 40% of the first stage of payment collection, and the remaining 20% will be completed before the Spring Festival. Under the influence of the direct distribution policy (10 yuan per box, which can be enjoyed only during the spring Festival), the channel is more positive, and the winery will start to deliver goods successively this week.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : there is progress in stable operation and the trend of structural upgrading continues
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announcement: according to preliminary calculation, the company will produce 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and 28200 tons of series base liquor in 2021; It is estimated that the total operating revenue will be about 109 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is about 52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%, of which the total operating revenue of 21q4 is about 31.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 12.4%, and the net profit is about 14.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 14.5%.
We believe that: in 2021, the overall operation of the company will be stable, in which the revenue of Maotai liquor will increase by 9.9% year-on-year, in which the expected volume will increase by a small single digit, and the structure upgrading and the proportion of direct channels will promote the price to achieve a large single digit growth; The revenue of series liquor increased by 26.1% year-on-year, mainly driven by price. The growth rate of 21q4’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased month on month, and the profit growth rate was faster than the revenue growth, mainly because 21q4 added non-standard products and old wine products. Specifically, the revenue of Maotai 21q4 increased by 14% year-on-year; The revenue of series liquor increased by 2% year-on-year. In terms of production capacity, according to preliminary calculation, the company produced 56500 tons of Maotai liquor and 28200 tons of series liquor base liquor in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and 13.1% respectively, exceeding the targets of 55300 tons and 29000 tons at the beginning of the year. Under the background of the growth of available delivery, the strengthening of marketing channel reform (firm pace), and the contribution of 1935 and treasures to new profits, the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow month on month in 2022.
Information update this week: the company released new treasures – from January 1, 2022, the prices of Maotai new treasures and Maotai old wine increased by 15. The retail guide price of Maotai new treasures was raised by 100 yuan, from 4499 yuan to 4599 yuan; Maotai aged liquor 15 increased from 4999 to 5999 yuan.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the equity incentive scheme is implemented, and the performance is expected to accelerate again
On December 29, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) issued the announcement on the implementation of equity incentive: 1. The first grant. It is agreed to grant 6928600 restricted shares to 441 incentive objects meeting the grant conditions at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share on December 29, 2021. According to the incentive plan, it is proposed to grant no more than 8834600 restricted shares to the incentive objects, accounting for about 0.6031% of the current total share capital of the company. The incentive objects include directors, senior managers, middle managers and core backbone personnel of the company, with a total number of no more than 521. 2. Performance appraisal. The performance evaluation conditions for unlocking the restricted shares to be granted under the plan are: the return on net assets from 2021 to 2023 shall not be less than 22% and not less than the 75th percentile of the benchmark enterprise; Compared with 2019, the net profit growth rate shall not be lower than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking enterprise; From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of costs and expenses in operating revenue shall not be higher than 65%. 3. Lock up period. The restricted stock sales period is 24 months after the registration date, and 40%, 30% and 30% are unlocked every 12 months after the restricted stock sales period. 4. Expenses. The total cost to be recognized is 1.041 billion (expenses incurred from 2022 to 2025 are 390 million, 390 million, 182 million and 78 million respectively). We believe that the smooth implementation of the equity incentive plan is conducive to stimulating the enthusiasm of the management and the vitality of the company. We believe that the smooth implementation of the equity incentive plan and the company’s implementation of the executive compensation incentive plan in the past 21 years will effectively improve the enthusiasm of employees, stimulate endogenous growth momentum, continuously improve internal governance and accelerate the development of performance.
Survey update this week: Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369)
1、 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) channel research: in terms of product data, the proportion of products: internal reference, drunkard and Xiangquan account for 50%, 40% and 10% respectively. In terms of specific drunkard series, the proportion of red altar and inheritance is about 40%, 35%, and the proportion of yellow altar, transparent dress and purple altar is relatively small. Provincial rating: about 400 yuan for hongtan 20, about 290 yuan for hongtan (the actual transaction price is about 320-350 yuan), about 245 yuan for inheritance, about 200-210 yuan for Huangtan, about 90 yuan for Xiangquan, about 200 yuan for ordinary purple altar + and about 395 yuan for purple altar 20. In the provincial market, the mainstream price band in Hunan Province has gradually increased to 300-500 yuan; The company’s channels have covered prefecture level cities and gradually distributed to circulation channels.
2、 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Development Conference: looking forward to the future, the company will continue to upgrade its product structure by deepening four campaigns: 1) V-series is unswerving in tackling tough problems – strive to improve the potential energy of V9 brand (the company established V99 alliance today to help the development of V-series); 2) Opening up the system, improving the quality and expanding the area – improve the control and profit sharing system and continue to promote intensive cultivation in different areas; 3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) activate and highlight the characteristics – create excellence wedding banquet promotion mode, upgrade the old products, expand the scene, supplement the new products and simplify the number; 4) Many measures should be taken to make breakthroughs outside the province – coordinated layout of dual brands (National edge takes the lead in nationalization, main promotion of systems, local highland layout V9), diversified plate building (peripheral, plate, 100 City breakthrough project, tackling 10 “quasi billion yuan” provincial plates), innovative consumption training, and strive to achieve more than 20% of the revenue outside the province in the 14th five year plan.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating performance this week is stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is about 2750-2900 yuan, and the wholesale price of the whole container is about 3300-3400 yuan. Recently, some dealers have begun to prepare goods for the Spring Festival, and it is expected to complete about 25% of the annual quota (from January to February), and the price has not changed; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price this week is stable at 970-980 yuan, and the wholesale price of classic clothes is about 1700-1800 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts are being signed in the coming year. It is expected that 20% of the payment will be collected before 1218 and 40% before the Spring Festival; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the rated price is about 900-910 yuan. The payment collection of Guojiao in 21 years has been completed (+ 35%), and the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%. The overall performance of the rated price is stable.
Investment advice: fearless of short-term fluctuations, firmly optimistic about 22q1’s good start
We believe that most of the current plate fluctuations are caused by the high increase in the early stage + the fluctuation caused by the emotional (News) level. From the fundamental point of view, the wineries opened earlier + the goal of some wine enterprises to make a good start compared with previous years + the inventory of dealers is generally low + the wholesale price is stable and positive under the tide of price increase + channel confidence, and actively lay the foundation for a good start in 2022, Along with the anticipation of the early part, the expectation will continue to increase (for example, the Moutai price increase and the marketing reform expectation. Although Moutai has opened 969 yuan for the Spring Festival, it does not mean that the price will not be raised after the Spring Festival.) the Baijiu plate will not change to the good trend.
[Conclusion] from top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the gradual realization of high-end wine, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on.
2、 [food sector]:
Plate review: the food plate fell as a whole this week
Plate growth: food processing plate fell 0.39%, of which seasoning plate fell 0.6%, dairy plate fell 1.88%, meat plate rose 1.31%.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 30.27%), Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (+ 24.56%) and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 22.12%) were among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (+ 24.56%), Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 22.12%) and Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) (+ 4.28%) led the gains; Seasoning sector Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 30.27%), Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) (+ 5.47%) and Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) (+ 4.01%) led the gains; In the dairy sector, Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (+ 9.52%), Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) (+ 4.28%) and Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) (+ 2.48%) increased significantly; In the comprehensive food sector, Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) (+ 12.78%), Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) (+ 10.13%) and Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) (+ 7.80%) led the gains.
Update this week: update Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) and Longda food, and reiterate the three main investment lines Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) : research update: 2022 is a year when the national market operation is really started, and it will continue to expand!
[product side] 1) large single product sweet milk: 450ml of large Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) sales account for more than 60% of all specifications, developing steadily. 2) Price increase: the company will consider price increase, but under the condition of ensuring the company’s gross profit margin + net profit + market stability.
[channel side] 1) at present, the proportion of traditional channels: special channels is about 5:5 or 6:4; Dealer: the proportion of direct sales is about 95:5. 2) Number of dealers: in the process of nationalization, in the past, the number of dealers increased by about 20% every year, reaching 2600 in 21q3; It is expected that 10 new marketing departments will be added next year, and the number of marketing personnel will increase significantly (the company’s overall development idea is from the perspective of distribution system mode and channel characteristics, but the regional special channels will be slightly different).
[market side] now it has established a sales network in about 30 provinces in China: 1) East China: sales account for 50%, and Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai perform well. Among them, Zhejiang can do 400 million +, and the volume is expected to reach 500 million in the next year. At the same time, the growth rate of 21q1-3 in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other markets has reached 30%. In addition, Jiangxi and Anhui markets are also in the stage of rapid development; 2) Non East China: in the stage of attracting investment and cultivating new customers, the markets in Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong are developing very fast (21q1-3 basically has a growth rate of 100% – 300%).
[capacity side] at present, the company has five production bases in China. With Hebi Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) put into operation, the company’s capacity reaches a scale of 400000 + tons. Jiangxi Shanggao and Zhejiang Longyou projects are also in progress. Trial production is expected to be carried out next year and the next year, with a postpartum Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) output scale of about 550000-600000 tons.
[cost] under the nationalization, the company will increase investment in publicity to improve brand awareness. It is generally stable and may increase slightly.
Longda Cuisine: the development strategy of one body and two wings, with prefabricated dishes as the core and slaughtering and breeding as the two wings.
Integration: Prefabricated dishes defined by Longda Cuisine:
Based on the perspective of customers and consumption, it is redefined according to the different degree of prefabrication and the difference of consumers’ cooking ability. It is divided into: Prefabricated ingredients, prefabricated semi-finished dishes and prefabricated finished dishes. Prefabricated dish strategy: develop BC simultaneously to create differentiated solutions.
1) Big B customers: the company has strict quality control (export to Japan in the early stage, strict quality inspection, 1 international testing organization, strict control of 24 tests in the whole process), active R & D and special class service.
2) Small and medium-sized B customers: large single product strategy (integrating upstream and downstream supply chains), large-scale production (reducing costs and expenses), nationwide network (solving the last kilometer problem faster).
3) End C: enrich the product line, carry out regional R & D (three R & D centers and eight food research institutes), and trace the source in the whole process (self breeding and self slaughtering meat industry chain).
Two wings: Slaughtering and breeding to ensure product quality and production efficiency
