This week’s market
Overall: this week, CSI 300 rose or fell by 0.39%, 25 of the 31 industries in Shenwan level rose, the power equipment industry rose or fell by 3.40%, ranking seventh in Shenwan level industry, and the wind photovoltaic index rose or fell by 2.97%.
Individual stocks: 43 stocks in the photovoltaic industry (component stocks of wind photovoltaic index) achieved positive returns, of which, Shouhang High-Tech Energy Co.Ltd(002665) led the rise by 52.37% and Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) led the decline by – 14.50%.
Valuation: as of January 2, 2021, the PE (TTM) of photovoltaic industry (wind photovoltaic index) is 54.40, and the P / E ratio of electrical equipment industry (Shenwan level) is 55.35.
Price tracking
The price of the industrial chain fell steadily this week:
The price of monocrystalline silicon material fell;
The price of monocrystalline silicon remains stable and the price of polycrystalline silicon rises;
The price of single crystal cell remains stable and that of polycrystalline cell remains stable;
Component prices fell.
Industry dynamics
SASAC: by 2025, the proportion of renewable energy installed by central enterprises will reach more than 50%
Shandong printing and distributing the whole county roof distributed pilot scheme
Inner Mongolia: by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will be more than 5GW
Investment advice
The price of silicon material maintained a downward trend this week, but the decline has narrowed. According to the statistics of the silicon industry association, China’s polysilicon output in 2021 totaled about 490000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 23.7%. It is expected that the annual polysilicon import volume will be 116000 tons, and the total polysilicon supply in China will be about 606000 tons. According to the production planning statistics of various enterprises, it is expected that the annual silicon material output will reach 800000 tons in 2022, which can support about 230gw of installed capacity, and the shortage of silicon material is expected to be alleviated. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhihui PV, the installed capacity of China’s ground power stations exceeded 15gw from December 1 to 30, 2021, and the enthusiasm for rush installation at the end of the year is still strong. In addition, the newly installed capacity in the previous November was 34.83gw, and the newly installed capacity in the whole year may exceed 50gw, which is in line with our expectations. Long term optimistic about the leader of vertical integrated components and the leading inverter enterprises with leading layout in the field of energy storage: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk statement
The consumption of new energy is less than expected; The new installed capacity is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of industrial chain; The implementation of the new energy plan on the 14th five year plan was not as expected.
