\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event:
On the evening of March 14, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of about 145.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 24.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 145.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was about 24.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 155.20%. Among them, Q4 company achieved a revenue of about 38.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 57.92% and a month on month increase of – 3.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 5.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.84% and a month on month increase of – 15.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was about 5.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.96% and a month on month increase of – 16.50%.
Comments:
The volume and price of polyurethane and petrochemical products rose all year round, which helped the company’s performance increase greatly
In 2021, the company’s polyurethane series products achieved a revenue of about 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 72.8%. In February 2021, the company completed the technical transformation of Yantai MDI unit, and the MDI capacity of Yantai base was increased from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / A to 1.1 million T / A; Hungarian BC company also increased MDI capacity from 300000 t / A to 350000 T / a through technological transformation during the reporting period. Benefiting from the increase of production capacity, the sales volume of polyurethane series products of the company increased significantly in 2021. The sales volume of polyurethane series products in the whole year was about 3.89 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 32.7%. The average price of polyurethane series products of the company in 2021 was about 15600 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of about 30.2%. Among them, the revenue of polyurethane series products of Q4 company in 2021 was about 16.4 billion yuan, with a chain comparison of + 4.6%. The sales volume of polyurethane series products was about 980000 tons, with a chain comparison of – 2.7%. The average price of polyurethane series products in 2021q4 was about 16700 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 7.5%. The slight decline in the sales volume of Q4 polyurethane products of the company in 2021 is mainly affected by Ningbo MDI phase I and phase II maintenance and other factors. In terms of products, according to the product listing price disclosed by the company, the average prices of pure MDI and aggregate MDI of the company in 2021 were 24000 yuan / ton and 22000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of about 24.6% and 31.5% respectively. In terms of TDI, according to Ifind data, the average price of TDI products in China was about 15000 yuan / ton in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 17.8%. In terms of profitability, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average gross profit of pure MDI in 2021 was about 8967 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.2%, of which the average gross profit in 2021q4 was about 6908 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of about 23.2%. In 2021, the average gross profit of aggregate MDI was about 7614 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of about 9.3%, of which the average gross profit of 2021q4 was about 6081 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of about 22.4%. The joint decline of gross profit margin and sales volume of 2021q4mdi products has led to the negative month on month growth of 2021q4 net profit of the company to a certain extent.
In terms of petrochemical products, the company’s revenue from petrochemical products in 2021 was about 61.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.46%. Benefiting from the commissioning of the company’s one million ton ethylene phase I project in Yantai Industrial Park (November 2020), the company’s petrochemical business revenue and production and sales volume increased significantly. The company’s petrochemical business revenue exceeded that of polyurethane business for the first time, reaching 42.2%. In 2021, the output of petrochemical products of the company was 4 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 79.49%, of which the output of petrochemical products of 2021q4 company reached 1.22 million tons, the highest in each quarter of 2021. The prices of butyl alcohol, acrylic acid and NPG increased by 72.5% and 100.5% respectively, with the highest year-on-year growth of butyl alcohol and NPG in 2022. At present, the company has opened up the three major petrochemical raw materials C2 / C3 / C4, and the petrochemical business has become the development pillar of the company. It not only has strong industrial chain synergy, but also has complementary product structure, which also provides necessary raw materials for the development of new materials.
Deepen the business layout of multiple companies and expand the business layout of new materials
In terms of fine chemicals and new materials business, the company achieved a revenue of 15.5 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 94.18%; The sales volume was about 760000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%. At present, the company’s new material business mainly focuses on products such as ADI, PC, PMMA and TPU. By the end of 2021, the company has 80000 T / a PMMA capacity and 210000 T / a PC capacity.
In addition to the above products, in recent years, the company has continued to layout new material production capacity in many fields and broaden the company’s commercial territory. According to incomplete statistics, the downstream applications of new materials currently deployed by the company include many hot fields such as new energy lithium batteries, wind power and semiconductors. In terms of lithium battery, the company has “50000 T / a lithium iron phosphate lithium battery cathode material integration project” (50000 T / a iron phosphate and 50000 T / a lithium iron phosphate) and ternary lithium battery cathode material production project. In addition, the company also has 80000 T / a NMP capacity project. In the field of wind power, the company has a polyether amine production capacity of 40000 tons / year. At the same time, the company has recently established Zhejiang Baowan Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd. with Baowu Carbon Technology Co., Ltd. to enter the pan based carbon fiber market. In terms of semiconductor materials, the company has a production capacity of 15000 ~ 20000 tons / year CMP polishing fluid and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) pieces / year CMP polishing pads in Yantai base. In terms of high-performance polymers, the company’s Poe products with independent intellectual property rights have completed the pilot test. The company expects to put into operation 100000 t / a Poe capacity in 2023 and increase to 200000 t / A in 2025. The layout of the company in many new material fields shows, on the one hand, the company’s strategic plan to gradually penetrate and develop into the new material field on the basis of strong MDI and petrochemical products, on the other hand, the company’s high investment in product R & D as a top chemical enterprise.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s performance in 2021 is basically in line with expectations. However, considering the recent gradual reduction of MDI profits and the decline of relevant product prices, we slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added the company’s profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 25.7 billion yuan (down 7.1%), 27.6 billion yuan (down 12.5%) and 30.1 billion yuan respectively, and the converted EPS will be 8.19, 8.80 and 9.60 yuan / share respectively. As a global leader in MDI industry, based on the capacity layout of petrochemical projects, the company has strong industrial chain synergy. In addition, the company continues to layout the production capacity of a variety of new materials and continuously expand its commercial territory, which is expected to show new development vitality. We still maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials and products fluctuates, the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of capacity construction, R & D risk, and the market expansion of new products are less than expected.
