\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
The company released its 2021 annual report, with an annual revenue of 7.71 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.84 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% at the same time; EPS1. 57, with an increase of 3.4%. Among them, Q4 revenue was 2.47 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million yuan, an increase of 29.6% at the same time; EPS0. 44, an increase of 29.4%.
Key points supporting rating
Good operation and profit pressure: in 2021, the production and sales volume of the company increased slightly, realizing a revenue of 7.71 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.84 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0%, and an expense rate of 8.2%, which was generally stable. Affected by the rise in coal prices and the slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investment, the annual comprehensive gross profit margin was 37.2%, with a decrease of 2.4pct, and the annual net profit margin was 23.8%, with a decrease of 1.5pct.
The increase of Q4 price increases and some hedging costs rise: we calculate that the company’s Q4 cement sales volume is about 5.201 million tons, with a month on month increase of 706000 tons; The average price per ton was 446.8 yuan, an increase of 143.3 yuan; The cost per ton was 339.7 yuan, an increase of 142.3 yuan; The gross profit per ton was about 107.1 yuan, down 7.9 yuan month on month. The cement price rose rapidly from the beginning of September to the peak in mid October, and fell rapidly. The price increase of the company’s products was similar to the cost increase, which partially hedged the pressure of coal price increase. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Q4 company was 38.1%, an increase of 4.8pct at the same time and 5.2pct at the same time.
The certainty of stable growth of infrastructure in 2022 is strong, and we are optimistic about the release of regional demand: the economic growth target in 2022 is set at 5.5%, and infrastructure as the starting point of stable growth is worth looking forward to. Guangdong Province plans to arrange 1570 provincial key projects in 2022, with an annual planned investment of 900 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% at the same time, and plans to start 294 new projects. Eastern Guangdong, where the company is located, is expected to benefit from the release of demand brought by the steady growth of regional investment.
Valuation
Considering the certainty of infrastructure demand growth and the possibility of profit restoration per ton caused by peak staggering production, the performance expectation is adjusted. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.75 billion yuan, 9.18 billion yuan and 9.95 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.08 billion yuan, 2.23 billion yuan and 2.45 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.75, 1.87 and 2.06 yuan respectively. Maintain the company’s buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The promotion of infrastructure and special bonds was less than expected, and the supply and stable price of bulk commodities were less than expected
