Key news tracking this week
Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”). The plan comprehensively compiles petrochemical, chemical, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other industries, forming China’s first national integrated industrial plan for raw material industry.
Recently, SASAC issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization (hereinafter referred to as the opinions). The opinions put forward that by 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10000 yuan output value of central enterprises will be 15% lower than that in 2020, the carbon dioxide emission of 10000 yuan output value will be 18% lower than that in 2020, the installed proportion of renewable energy power generation will reach more than 50%, and the revenue proportion of strategic emerging industries will not be less than 30%, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peak.
Price tracking comments on key products this week
WTI oil price rose 2.9% to USD 75.21/barrel this week.
Key injection sub industries: this week, the prices of silicone / polymerized MDI / caustic soda / rubber / urea / pure MDI / titanium dioxide / solid methionine / viscose staple fiber / ethylene glycol / TDI / viscose filament rose by 5.3% / 4.4% / 4.2% / 3% / 2.8% / 2.7% / 1.5% / 0.8% / 0.6% / 0.5% / 0.3% / 0.2% respectively month on month; The price of light soda ash / heavy soda ash / Spandex / acetic acid / calcium carbide PVC / liquid methionine / ethylene PVC / VA decreased by 6% / 5.3% / 2.4% / 2.4% / 2.2% / 1.2% / 1.1% / 0.9% month on month respectively; Ve / DMF prices remain unchanged. The top five sub industries of this week’s growth: battery grade lithium carbonate (+ 9.8%), potassium chloride (Qinghai Salt Lake potash fertilizer, 60% crystal) (+ 9.4%), p-xylene (Zhenhai Refining and chemical) (+ 9.4%), industrial grade lithium carbonate (+ 7.1%), pure benzene (FOB Korean sale) (+ 6.4%).
Organosilicon: this week, the organosilicon market continued to rise, and the double benefits of supply and demand supported enterprise confidence. The market trading is still active, the downstream factories are actively preparing goods before the festival, the inventory of silicone enterprises is low, and the supply of goods in the yard is relatively short due to the shutdown and maintenance of individual devices. The focus of trading and investment in the yard is upward. MDI: the market price of China’s aggregated MDI rose one after another this week. The supplier’s listing prices have been announced one after another, and the price has maintained stable operation. In addition, the supplier does not ship near the end of the month, and South Korea has closed its plate to China, and the filling of import volume is also limited. The spot on the floor still remains in short supply. The goods held by the merchants are few and reluctant to sell at low prices, and the mainstream offer continues to rise slightly.
Rubber: the market price of natural rubber rose this week. In terms of supply, at present, the cutting of natural rubber in China has stopped in Yunnan, Hainan, and the output of raw glue in Thailand has increased steadily. Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector rose 3.76% over last week, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.39% over last week. The basic chemical sector outperformed the market by 3.38 percentage points, ranking fourth in all sectors. According to Shen Wan’s classification, the basic chemical sub industries with large weekly increases include potassium fertilizer (+ 12.93%), paint and ink manufacturing (+ 7.13%), synthetic leather (+ 6.2%), pesticides (+ 5.23%), and other fibers (+ 4.99%).
Key sub industry views
(1) Many factors affect the prosperity of the sub industry next year. Under the expected increase of cultivated land area, the maintenance of grain prices at a high level, China’s orderly supply and the rise of prices in the fourth quarter, the overall profitability of the pesticide industry is expected to improve next year. It is mainly recommended that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) ; The prosperity of the tire industry has bottomed out, and the new energy field has brought development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . The boom of viscose industry is expected to reverse, and Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) is recommended. (2) The demand economy is relatively weak, and the fields of semiconductor materials, military materials and other new materials are independent and controllable in the medium and long term; Focus on the chemical synthesis platform company Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) and China’s private gas leading enterprise Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) . (3) The downstream demand is stable, and great attention is paid to the subdivided fields such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy and sugar substitutes; It is recommended that Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) be the leader of new energy functional materials and Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) be the leader of global sweeteners. (4) The vertical and horizontal expansion of the leader, prominent integration advantages, and the profit center is expected to rise; Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of crude oil price; Covid-19 epidemic leads to less demand than expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risk
