\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 536 3Peak Incorporated(688536) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.3%. After excluding the impact of share based payment expenses, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180.4%.
Signal chain products grew steadily, while power management products rose sharply. 2021:1) from the perspective of revenue, the company’s signal chain products maintained steady growth, with revenue of about 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.6% and revenue accounting for 77.5%; The revenue of power analog chips reached 300 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1276.3%, and the revenue proportion increased to 22.5%, mainly due to the continuous launch of new power products. 2) From the profit side, due to the rapid increase in the proportion of power management chip products with relatively low gross profit margin, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin decreased slightly to 60.5% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7pp; The net interest rate was 33.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pp. 3) From the expense side, the company’s sales expense ratio was 4.3%, up 0.2pp year-on-year; The rate of administrative expenses was 4.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1pp; The R & D expense ratio was 22.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pp.
There is a wide space for domestic substitution in the industry, and the company has strengthened its research and development to consolidate its position. WSTS predicts that the global analog IC scale will reach US $71.18 billion in 2022, of which China’s sales account for more than 43%, but the localization rate is still less than 15%. As one of the few local analog companies deeply ploughing the signal chain, the company has the advantages of rich material numbers, leading technology, process differentiation and so on. With the advantage of high domestic market share, the company is still increasing R & D and enriching material numbers: in 2021, the company’s R & D investment increased by 145.6% year-on-year, the number of R & D personnel increased by 95.0% year-on-year, and the annual material number increased by 400 to a total of more than 1600. It is expected that the competitiveness of the company’s signal chain chip will be further improved in the future. With the cooperation of power management IC, the company is expected to consolidate the domestic leading position of Analog IC.
The company actively optimizes the downstream structure and creates a platform, which is conducive to product iteration and deepening barriers. The company’s business is mainly higher-end communication and industrial control business, and its revenue accounts for about 90%. In 2021, the company realized the mass production of the first automotive high-voltage precision amplifier and the first multi-channel digital isolator. In addition, the company is also laying out two general-purpose platforms: isolation + vehicle regulation. When it is mature, analog IC, MCU and digital analog hybrid products are expected to be attached to the platform for research and iteration in the future, and the company is expected to further deepen its own competitive barriers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company is still increasing its R & D investment under the advantage of high market share in China, and the power management IC business will also accelerate the synergy. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s EPS will be 7.52/10.32/13.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 83 / 60 / 45 times respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the company’s position in China’s analog chip field and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of technology research and development does not meet expectations; Downstream demand slows down; Customer import is not progressing as expected.
