Event: on December 31, 2021, the four ministries and commissions issued the notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (CJ [2021] No. 466) (hereinafter referred to as the notice), the main points of which are as follows:
1. Subsidy standard: in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy standard for vehicles meeting the requirements in urban public transport, leasing (including online car Hailing) and other fields will decline by 20%.
2. Technical index requirements: the purchase subsidy policy in 2022 will maintain the energy density, driving range, energy consumption and other technical index thresholds of the power battery system unchanged and stabilize the enterprise expectation.
3. Policy termination date: on December 31, 2022, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated, and the vehicles licensed after December 31 will no longer be subsidized.
4. Strengthen product safety supervision: improve the safety supervision system of new energy vehicles, and further compact the main responsibility of new energy vehicle manufacturers.
We believe that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is turning to demand driven. The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 is in line with market expectations and does not change the general direction of industry development.
The industry has expected the decline of subsidies and the termination of policies. The notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (CJ [2020] No. 86) issued by the four ministries and commissions in April 2020 specifies that the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2022. In principle, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from the previous year.
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto market has changed from policy driven to demand driven, and the impact of this decline on terminal demand is limited. According to the calculation of the subsidy scheme, the subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of 300 km ≤ range < 400 km in 2022 will be reduced by 3900 yuan compared with 2021, the subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of ≥ 400 km in 2022 will be reduced by 5400 yuan, and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid (including add-on program) passenger vehicles will be reduced by 2000 yuan in 2022. The decline of subsidies will increase consumers’ car purchase costs. However, from the performance of the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) market since 2020, Wuling Hongguang miniev and ideal one, which do not enjoy new energy subsidies, also have strong sales. We believe that obtaining subsidies is not the main consideration for car owners when purchasing cars. Models with high sex price ratio and strong product power are easier to be recognized by consumers. As car companies launch more high-quality models, consumers pay more attention to the driving experience and body configuration of new energy vehicles, and the marketization trend will continue to strengthen.
The subsidy policy has played an important role in the cultivation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) consumers. The notice specifies that the subsidy policy will be terminated by the end of 2022, reflecting the country’s confidence in the healthy development of new energy industry. With the strong support of various departments, the technical level and product performance of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile have been significantly improved, and the market cultivation has entered a new stage. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2015 was 0.9%, and it reached 12.7% from January to November 2021. The end of 2022 is the subsidy termination time node determined by the state after comprehensively considering the development plan of new energy vehicle industry, market sales trend and smooth transition of enterprises.
Investment strategy: the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is in line with expectations. The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is gradually driven by demand. We are optimistic about the development space of the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market. In terms of complete vehicles, it is recommended that Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) with rich reserves of new energy technologies and talents, and independent and joint ventures with new energy strength; In terms of parts and components, industry leaders Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) benefiting from the reconstruction of lightweight industrial chain pattern brought by the development of new energy technology are recommended, and high-precision gear suppliers Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) benefiting from electrification are recommended.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips leads to the recovery of automobile sales less than expected; The price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply; The development of new energy technology is less than expected.
