\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 008 Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) )
Leading memory interface chip leader
After more than ten years of development, the company has maintained a world leading position in DDR4 and ddr5 generation products. The "1 + 9" distributed memory buffer subsystem framework proposed by DDR4 generation company has obtained JEDEC certification. The first generation of ddr5 memory interface module and module supporting chip will be mass produced in October 2021. It is expected that the company's ddr5 products will continue the leading position of DDR4 memory interface chip. In 2021, the company made a breakthrough in the CPU platform business, and the revenue increased explosively to 845 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 275092%. The company attaches importance to R & D investment, has obtained 109 invention patents, and maintains large-scale R & D investment. The R & D cost rate remains at about 15% all year round. The future investment will mainly focus on new products, including PCIe retimer chip, AI chip, etc.
The memory interface chip is upgraded iteratively, and the CPU platform meets the breakthrough
1. Memory interface chip: ddr5 intergenerational upgrade promotes the volume and price of memory interface chip. On the one hand, the downstream server market has strong demand, boosting the demand growth of memory interface chips; On the other hand, with the renewal and iteration of ddr5 generation products, the "1 + 10" architecture requires more DB chips. At the same time, the penetration rate of chip sets is expected to increase. Intergenerational upgrading promotes the recovery of the average sales unit price of the company's products. It is a foregone conclusion that the volume and price of the company's memory interface chip products will rise at the same time.
2. Jinchuan CPU platform: after years of hard work, it finally achieved a breakthrough. The company, together with Intel and Tsinghua University, successfully developed Jinchuan CPU platform, and the third generation products were mass produced and listed in April 2021. The company and the upstream and downstream ecological construction are becoming more and more prosperous, and the expansion of the market has achieved initial results. Compared with the revenue of 29 million yuan in 2020, the revenue of 845 million yuan in 2021 actually increased explosively. Under the wave of domestic substitution, the demand of Jinchuan CPU platform series products is expected to continue to increase.
3pcieretimer chip: focus on the market demand and expand the first mover advantage. PCIe retimer chip mainly solves the problems of uneven signal timing, large loss and poor integrity of data center server in high-speed and long-distance data transmission. The company achieved pcie4.5% in September 2020 0retimer chip mass production, has started pcie5 R & D of 0retimer chip. With Q3 supporting pcie5 in 2022 0's Intel CPU is listed, and the company's pcie5 0retimer chip is expected to be introduced into the market synchronously. As a global leader in memory chips, the company is constantly enriching its product matrix.
Investment advice
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 829, 1399 and 2038 million yuan, with a corresponding P / E ratio of 103, 60 and 42 times. The company is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Ddr5 penetration rate is lower than expected, downstream server demand is lower than expected, and new product R & D and promotion are lower than expected.
