\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
On the afternoon of March 11, 2022, the company held the 2022 investor communication meeting online. Zeng Congqin, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of the company (stock), Jiang Wenge, deputy secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the company, Zhang Yu, vice chairman, Luo Wei, Jiang Lin, Yue Song and Liu Yang, deputy general managers, and Zhao Dong, chief engineer, Chief economist Jiang Jia and other management leaders attended the meeting.
Key investment points
Implement three principles and focus on the objectives of the 14th five year plan
In 2022, the company will, in accordance with the policy of "making up for weaknesses, strengthening strengths and strengthening excellence", continue to make up for weaknesses, lengthen the board, and upgrade new driving forces, so as to create a Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , which integrates "ecology, quality, culture, digital and Sunshine" with sustained, steady and high-quality development.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company deeply implemented the development strategy of "focusing on the main business, focusing on diversification and expanding the platform", and the group achieved the development goal of "5111": 1) breaking into the world's top 500; 2) The sales revenue of the main business of the wine industry has exceeded 100 billion; 3) The sales revenue of diversified industries has exceeded 100 billion; Strive to build a world-class wine enterprise with excellent products, excellent brands, leading innovation and modern governance.
The joint stock company has achieved the development goal of "2118": 1) the production capacity of raw wine has reached 200000 tons; 2) The storage capacity of base liquor reaches 1 million tons; 3) Sales revenue exceeded 100 billion; 4) The total profit reached 80 billion yuan.
Actively respond to market concerns and communicate sincerely and effectively with the company
In 2022, the group company aims to maintain a steady growth of more than double digits, and the joint-stock company will continue to maintain a growth rate higher than that of the group. It will earnestly maintain the current "stable" trend and "progressive" efforts, actively promote the relative balance between the low and peak seasons, and strive to exceed the annual goals and tasks.
The current market mainly focuses on the company as follows:
1. How to plan the channel profit space after Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase?
The company mainly takes the following three measures: first, relying on the digital marketing system, the company finely completes the precise channel management and delivery, and optimizes the delivery volume of traditional channels with high quality and stability. The specific action is to further reduce and control the supply quantity of problem areas, problem dealers, problem specialty stores and problem terminals in the past development process, and reflect the scarcity of traditional dealers and specialty stores on the basis of ensuring the high dynamic sales of the eighth generation in 2021 through accurate delivery. Second, comply with the overall trend of channel development of the whole consumer goods market and promote the share of new channels. During the Spring Festival, the supply price of new retail, e-commerce and chain supermarkets is more than 50 yuan higher than that of traditional channels, and the price is more than 80-100 yuan higher than that of traditional channels respectively. The basic profit system of the channel can achieve about 15%, which will force traditional dealers to transform, promote the transformation of large channel merchants to core terminals and chain brands, and promote the transformation of small dealers to direct group purchase. Third, cultural products have become a new profit growth point. This year, we will increase the release of such cultural wine, continue to maintain the original high-quality sales of cultural products such as jiulongtan, Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) liter, plain sailing and zodiac series, restore the restart of old products such as plain sailing and taking the lead, and innovate and develop more cultural wine series. We believe that the main reason for the current downturn of the company's share price is that there is pressure on the company's upward rating, which has not yet stood in the price band of 1000 yuan, which has aroused the market's concern about the company's future performance. The company actively regulates the channel profit space, which is conducive to the subsequent upward rating.
2. 2022 classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) playing method?
The company will continue to maintain the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ex factory price increase. In 2022, the price will be increased by 200 yuan to 1599 yuan compared with last year. The company will coordinate the product progress, tighten the supply of goods to ensure scarcity in case of market price fluctuation, and carry out acquisition in case of market price decline, fully reflecting the function of platform providers.
In terms of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand building, three measures will be taken in 2022: first, optimize classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers and quota system. Adhere to the selection of 200 traditional specialty stores, and do not easily develop dealer customers; The hierarchical quota system will be realized in 2022. At present, the existing businesses are divided into three levels. Different levels hold scarcity quotas every month to ensure the overall scarcity situation. Second, clarify the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) core market and key market. The company has built five core highland cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu. Taking Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) experience store as the project carrier, the company has built new channels with partners with social resources, built direct supply channels with large enterprises and chambers of Commerce, and built a local channel system and network system in the five core cities. Focus on building 33 cities, with municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capitals as the core. In addition to the original 120 traditional dealers and exclusive stores system, it only focuses on enterprise group purchase. The goal is to sign strategic cooperation with the company and its subordinates, China's top 500 enterprises and subordinate enterprises, enterprises listed on the main board, more influential associations and organizations across the country Leading enterprises in local cities cooperate in the construction of direct selling network. We believe that the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has been explored and tried for one year last year. The company has summarized the experience and lessons, focused on resources and created the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , which is expected to be further expanded in the future.
3. Management division of labor and incentive mechanism?
At present, the chairman of the company is in charge of sales and the general manager is in charge of production. The management system of the joint-stock company is actively and effectively straightened out and the division of labor is clear. The company holds weekly marketing morning meetings and production scheduling meetings to solve problems in real time and improve rapid response and execution. At present, the company is promoting salary reform and equity incentive scheme, promoting medium and long-term incentive measures, and binding management, core team and core backbone. We believe that the company's current division of labor is refined, the reaction speed and execution are accelerating, the early employee stock ownership has been implemented, and the subsequent equity incentive and salary reform will enhance the greater energy release of the company.
4. How to balance the volume and price in 2022?
In 2022, the company established the strategy of increasing both volume and price to realize the continuous return of value and price, and the continuous rise of terminal price, forming a virtuous interactive cycle. We believe that if the volume price balance of the company is accurately grasped in 2022, it is expected to stabilize the price band of 1000 yuan around the Mid Autumn Festival and national day in 2022.
5. 2022 series wine strategy?
In 2021, the company adheres to the three focus strategies to strengthen the national brand, expand the regional key brand and optimize the general distribution brand; Adhering to the two wheel drive of dynamic sales and payment collection, the sales revenue maintained double-digit growth, the profit reached a new high, and the four national strategic brands maintained double-digit growth. In 2022, the company will promote the creation of model market, promote the sales revenue to maintain more than double-digit growth, and strive to build more than 430000 terminals, including more than 90000 core terminals.
Product planning: focus on building wuliangchun (positioning Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan, secondary high-end positioning, expanding the waist, mingmenchun 788 yuan, focusing on banquets, wine consumption scenes and middle and high-end consumers), wuliangchun (positioning 100300 yuan, focusing on banquets, self drinking consumption scenes and middle-end consumers), special music (400600 yuan, focusing on banquets, business group purchases and secondary high-end consumers) Jianzhuang (100 yuan price band, cultivating Luzhou flavor taste) and other four brands. Volume planning: resolutely change the market misunderstanding of unlimited supply of series wine, control the amount of products, and convey the sense of product scarcity to the market. Price planning: change the misunderstanding that costs accurately reflect supply and demand, gradually raise prices, and promote the return of brand value. We believe that the company's drastic reform of series liquor in recent years has been fruitful, and the impression of channels and even terminals on the company's series liquor and even the profit space are obvious to all. The four major products of series liquor are expected to continue to develop during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Profit forecast
We believe that the company has taken many measures in recent years to reform and improve the brand, products, prices and channels, with remarkable results and high market recognition. We believe that by holding online communication meetings, the company's new leadership team will collectively appear and answer questions, actively and sincerely communicate with investors and actively respond to market concerns, which is conducive to improving market attention and eliminating current market concerns. The current valuation of the company is undervalued, and the subsequent repair is expected to be accelerated. We expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.02/7.13/8.37 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 29 / 24 / 21 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) growth is lower than expected, wholesale price rise is lower than expected, group purchase growth is lower than expected, etc.
