\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 838 Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) )
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) closely follow the development path of regional infrastructure first and industrial upgrading, with both logic and length, and sustainable growth. In the short and medium term, the bank is the core bank in key infrastructure areas and enjoys the scale growth dividend driven by infrastructure; Based on the medium and long-term development of the retail business, it is significant to build the new direction of the retail business by relying on the public and local resources.
Chengdu Chongqing twin city economic circle is positioned as the fourth pole of the national regional economy, with large infrastructure leading first and industrial upgrading following up. On the premise of moderately advancing infrastructure construction, we will strive to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters with international competitiveness and vigorously undertake industrial transfer. After the four-year construction period since 2018, Chengdu's major investment structure is shifting from the guidance of large infrastructure to the equal emphasis on industry and infrastructure.
In the medium and short term, infrastructure is still the main force of scale expansion, low-risk scale driven growth, supporting the high growth of revenue and profits. Infrastructure investment in the joint construction of Chengdu and Chongqing and the construction of Chengdu metropolitan area is the focus at present, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) relying on professional government service capacity and comprehensive network layout, taking advantage of the spring breeze of regional development to realize low-risk scale expansion. We expect that the total loans will exceed 750 billion in 2025, CAGR will exceed 20% in four years, and the total assets will exceed 1 trillion in 2023.
Cooperation with Chengdu rural commercial bank is greater than competition. The network layout of the two banks has their own emphasis, and the total volume is equivalent to that of local ICBC and CCB. The cooperation between the two banks is more conducive to competing with large banks in large projects and jointly obtaining projects that are difficult for a single bank to undertake due to its own volume.
In the medium and long term dimension, the low-risk and low pricing strategy selects physical enterprise customers, improves the production capacity and deposit contribution of retail business, and conforms to the general trend of regional industrial upgrading and residents' wealth growth.
For the public, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) give full play to the advantages of low-cost deposits brought by government affairs business, cut into low-risk and high-quality enterprise customers at low prices, and gradually expand credit, broaden income sources and improve the level of comprehensive income from building a stable customer relationship. 77% of Chengdu's national specialized and new "little giant" enterprises have business cooperation with Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) . The reason why it dares to enter customers at a price lower than that of its peers is precisely based on the solid foundation and extensive resources of deep cultivation in Chengdu. It can not only accurately select customers, but also help enterprises connect resources of all parties, which is a unique competitive barrier in terms of customers and services. Extremely low capital cost is the key to low loan pricing but sufficient interest margin. It is also a sharp weapon to win high-quality customers.
In terms of retail, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) has basically achieved full customer coverage in the main urban area of Chengdu, and the next step is to focus on improving the total production capacity represented by on balance sheet and off balance sheet liabilities. Thanks to the comprehensive network layout and profound government resources, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) holds tens of millions of local retail customers, skipping the most difficult new account opening link for general banks to develop retail business, and directly entering the relatively less difficult link of product and service promotion. On the liability side, the bank increased the proportion of retail deposits supporting medium and long-term growth potential by increasing the setting of community outlets and increasing the precise supply of on balance sheet and off balance sheet products, and will make timely efforts to strengthen the wealth business, expand AUM and strengthen medium income. On the asset side, the scale of consumer loans is very small. On the basis of ensuring mortgage investment and supported by a large retail customer base, there are more "drooping fruits" to be picked.
Stable corporate governance ensures that the bottom line of strategic sustainability and asset quality is not shaken Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) the management has been in office for a long time and has a unified style. Before listing, the asset quality risk is completely cleared. At present, the asset quality is very clean, which is equivalent to that of Toucheng commercial bank in the east coast.
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) starts with infrastructure construction, but it is far more than infrastructure construction. The growth driven by infrastructure construction is determined in the medium and short term. The logic of entity + retail is smooth and the potential for sustainable growth is prominent in the medium and long term. 1.5 times the 22-year Pb target valuation is given, corresponding to 22.5 yuan / share, with 64% upside space. We expect to maintain a profit growth rate of more than 25% and a revenue growth rate of more than 20% in the next three years. The current valuation is only 0.92 times Pb in 2022. It is reiterated that the banking sector is the first.
