The weekly performance of the plate: in the past two weeks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.29%, the gem index fell 3.25%, and the food and beverage (CITIC, including Baijiu) index fell 1.02%, compared with the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 relative income of -0.73%, ranking 29 in the CITIC 29 sub sectors. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector has increased by 5.60% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector has decreased by 0.38%, the snack food sector has increased by 1.04%, the quick-frozen food sector has decreased by 3.44% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors have increased by 3.38% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 44.61x, higher than the 8-year average (37.40x) and the 5-year average (38.59x). Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 24.77/68.82/41.12/50.57/32.13 times respectively.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in the past two weeks are Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) / Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) / Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) / Baiyang Investment Group Inc(002696) ; 2) The five stocks with high weekly average turnover rate are Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) ; 3) The five stocks with high trading volume are Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) / Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) / Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co.Ltd(000716) .
Industry highlights: 1) vegetable shopping: Community e-commerce is expected to become one of the mainstream channels for consumption of agricultural and sideline food products; 2) In 2021, China (Hainan) International Tropical Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) Winter Fair was successfully held.
Important announcements of food listed companies: 1) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : invest RMB 9.75 million and RMB 10 million respectively to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in the United States and Germany; 2) Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) to carry out cooperation in marketing, product R & D and strategic investment; 3) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : through the transfer and capital increase activities, the wholly-owned subsidiary daidaitian will hold 67% equity of Zhejiang Jiusheng oil tea.
Reminders of later important matters: convening of extraordinary general meeting: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) , Baiyang Investment Group Inc(002696) , Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741)
Investment proposal and investment object
Condiment: it is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks that have a smooth implementation of price increase due to industry pattern and product characteristics and have little impact on sales volume, as well as the individual stocks that are more likely to fall in subsequent costs, have large profit elasticity after cost fall and are expected to retain the price increase effect, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (002507, not rated).
Snack food: suggestions: 1) pay attention to individual stocks with marginal improvement due to reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive expansion of distribution channels, etc.), such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557, buy), Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) (603866, buy), Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) (002847, buy), Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (300783, not rated); In addition, with the deepening of reform in the industry and the continuous expansion of channels, we suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities catalyzed by events brought by the phased achievements of reform, such as the signing of key customer agreements, large-scale new channels, etc. 2) At the same time, Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) (603719, overweight) has shown good business robustness under the pressure of the industry in 21 years (for example, the omni channel layout mode hedges the negative impact brought by channel fragmentation and channel flow change, and the omni category layout mode suppresses the negative impact brought by the life cycle of leisure food under the background of diversified demand). It is optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value and is recommended to pay continuous attention.
Quick frozen food: the demand recovery of catering end is disturbed by the epidemic situation, and the industry competition has intensified. The effect of price increase transmission and landing remains to be observed. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) (002216, buy) of promoting channel reform and building new bases to expand production capacity, and in the medium term, it is recommended to close Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345, overweight), which is destined to increase national production capacity and provide new momentum for prefabricated dishes, And Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215, not rated) benefiting from the improvement of catering chain rate.
Halogen products: it is recommended to continue to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (603517, buy). Recently, the channel feedback stores update the menu and increase the price of some products. The price increase products are mainly popular core products such as duck neck and duck clavicle, with a price increase of 5-10%; The price of vegetables and beef increased by 10% – 15%; The price of some duck viscera will not rise for the time being. Whether the whole product price will be increased in the future depends on the recovery of terminal sales and catering. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchising and rapid store expansion and supply chain optimization.
Baking and tea raw materials: at present, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973, not rated) and the supplier of tea fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) (605300, not rated).
Risk statement
Rising raw material costs, intensified industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
