\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
"Autonomy + agency" two pronged approach to build a high-speed growth engine
Driven by independent innovation and R & D, the marketing ability is continuously improved, and the two wheel drive ensures the leading position Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) was founded in 1995 and officially invested in the biological products industry in 2002, with a registered capital of 1.6 billion yuan. It was listed on the Shenzhen GEM in 2010, becoming the first private vaccine enterprise listed on the gem. Now it has developed into a global and whole industry chain high-tech biopharmaceutical enterprise integrating R & D, production, marketing, promotion, distribution, import and export of vaccines and biological products, It has become one of the leading enterprises of China's vaccine enterprises, and the industry competitiveness and industry pattern have formed a stable scale.
In the past five years, the profitability has been outstanding. After the listing of heavy independent products, it is expected to continue to drive the rapid growth of performance. Since its listing, the company has achieved a relatively stable profit growth trend. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 30.637 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.197 billion yuan. Driven by covid-19 vaccine, it maintained an accelerated growth trend. In 2022, with the increasing supply of HPV vaccine in China and the listing and sales of EC + micro card varieties, it is expected to drive the company's performance to maintain a high-speed growth trend.
Industry trend: the vaccine industry is about to enter the golden age, with obvious advantages of leading enterprises
Chinese vaccine enterprises have entered a golden age. In recent years, the national policy support for the vaccine industry has been continuously strengthened, vigorously supporting the innovation of the vaccine industry and standardizing the healthy development of the industry. Secondly, covid-19 epidemic has prompted the government, disease control and the people to pay more attention to the prevention and control of infectious diseases and pay more attention to vaccines. With the increase of per capita disposable income, the improvement of people's vaccination awareness and the increase of batch issuance rate, China's vaccine demand side market will expand rapidly; In addition, Chinese vaccine enterprises continued technological innovation and kept catching up with the R & D level of International Vaccine enterprises. The competitive advantage of Chinese vaccine enterprises continued to strengthen, and Chinese vaccine enterprises entered the golden age.
Head enterprises have obvious advantages. On the one hand, the regulatory requirements under the vaccine law have become stricter to encourage large-scale and intensive vaccine production, and the industrial standards have been gradually improved. There is more room for the survival of the fittest in the industry in the future. On the other hand, the upgrading of residents' consumption has driven the demand for high-quality vaccine products, and the head enterprises have rich varieties and pipelines. With the R & D of the head enterprises, the market differentiation has further intensified, Head enterprises will continue to maintain a leading position. From the above situation, vaccine companies with heavy products and high-quality pipeline under research will continue to maintain the leading position in the industry.
The agent products continue to make efforts, and the growth of HPV vaccine can be expected
Deepen cooperation with MSD to ensure the supply chain of imported vaccines. The revenue of agency products is stable and continues to maintain a high level. Since 2017, the company's operating revenue has been increasing due to the agency of HPV vaccine, which has continued to drive the growth of performance. At present, the company has represented five products of MSD: hpv-4, hpv-9, pentavalent rotavirus attenuated live vaccine, 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and inactivated hepatitis A vaccine.
HPV penetration has great room to rise, ensuring Zhifei's continuous revenue. Moshadong hpv-4 and hpv-9 vaccines have obvious advantages, and "one vaccine is difficult to find" in many regions. At present, the hpv-4 price and hpv-9 price listed in China are produced by MSD. Compared with HPV-2, hpv-4 and hpv-9 are more popular because they can prevent more HPV types. Due to the improvement of residents' living standards, their awareness of diseases and vaccination awareness, the demand for HPV vaccine is expected to continue to increase in the future.
Tuberculosis track is far ahead: EC and micro card are heavily listed, and the layout of tuberculosis matrix is complete
Pay equal attention to secondary prevention and tertiary prevention, and EC + micro card may form the optimal solution. EC + micro card layout tuberculosis matrix to realize the combination of screening and prevention. EC and wechat obtained the National Drug Registration Certificate in 2020 and 2021 respectively. At present, the bidding work is progressing steadily. In the relevant national documents, it is pointed out that we should strengthen the screening of the key population of tuberculosis, and screen the tuberculosis screening as one of the physical examination indexes in the conditionally areas, strengthen the prevention and control of tuberculosis in schools, and promote the tuberculosis prevention and control of floating population. EC diagnostic reagent has the advantages of strong specificity and low cost. It is expected to become the mainstream diagnostic reagent in the future. Micro card is the first LTBI preventive product in China and has broad prospects.
Auxiliary layout of tuberculosis matrix: AEC / bc02 and BCG are ready to go. The tuberculosis matrix layout is perfect, and the follow-up products are sold in matrix. Other tuberculosis matrix products currently under development by the company are in phase I clinical trials. According to the application of similar products in China and the company's previous approval process, it is expected that the profitability of the products will continue to increase after they are listed in the future.
The layout of R & D pipelines is comprehensive and the long-term growth is strong
The pipeline under study is complete and the layout is reasonable, and gradually enters the harvest period of registration. In order to meet the needs of infectious disease prevention and control and national prevention, the company has strengthened the production and sales of its own products. At present, there are five independent products on sale, namely: EC, wechat, acyw135 meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, Hib vaccine and AC conjugate vaccine. The pipeline under research has sufficient reserves, and the continuously increasing R & D investment every year fully ensures the development progress of self-developed products. At present, the company has 2 R & D bases, 1 R & D center and 26 projects under research. It is expected that: 1) the production application of 23 valent pneumonia vaccine is expected to be accepted in the near future, and the production application of tetravalent influenza vaccine and MRC-5 rabies vaccine will be started soon; 2) Pcv15 is in phase 3 clinical trial and is expected to be approved for listing in 24-25 years.
Covid-19 vaccine has been approved for sequential vaccination in China, and the long-term influenza normalization vaccination can be expected
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) covid-19 vaccine has excellent performance in phase III test and can be used for infection with variant strains. The recombinant protein vaccine is still effective against the latest mutant Omicron. In the middle and late February of 22, covid-19 vaccine of the company has been approved for sequential vaccination of inactivated vaccine in China, which is expected to bring incremental profits to the company. Looking forward to the future, considering the comprehensive factors such as virus strain variation and protection cycle, covid-19 vaccine is expected to be vaccinated regularly, and the commercial value is expected.
Profit forecast and investment rating:
Without considering the profit expectation of covid-19 vaccine temporarily, we predict that the company will realize operating revenue of 22.158 billion yuan, 33.948 billion yuan and 44.078 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.616 billion yuan, 6.975 billion yuan and 9.116 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, 51.1% and 30.7% respectively, equivalent to EPS of 2.88 yuan / share, 4.36 yuan / share and 5.70 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to PE of 42.3x and 28.0x and 21.4x, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in industrial policies; Product R & D and registration failed; Product commercialization fails to meet expectations; Vaccine business compliance risk; Risk of core technology leakage.
