Core view
The policy setting is strongly supported, and the technical standards for power exchange have been gradually clarified
1) Since 2020, the state has issued a number of industrial policies to support the power exchange mode. In April 2020, the new policy on new energy subsidies jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries gave the right to enjoy subsidies for vehicles with power exchange mode at more than 300000 starting prices. In May 2020, as an important part of the "new infrastructure", the replacement power station was written into the government work report for the first time. In October 2020, the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) issued by the State Council stressed the improvement of safety standards, laws and regulations related to charging and replacement, vigorously promoted the construction of charging and replacement infrastructure, and encouraged enterprises to develop charging and replacement models according to the use scenarios. 2) In 2021, the policy will be gradually concretized and the industrial technical standards have been clarified. In April 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the notice on organizing the pilot work of power exchange mode for new energy enterprises, which included 11 cities such as Beijing, Nanjing, Sanya and Wuhan into the scope of power exchange mode pilot cities, and planned to promote the exchange of more than 100000 electric vehicles and more than 1000 power stations. In October 2021, the group standard of code for construction of electric passenger vehicle shared power exchange station led by China Automobile Association was reviewed, and specific technical standards were put forward for the construction and operation of power exchange station and the design of power exchange battery pack, which provided guidance for the further promotion of the work of vehicle enterprises, battery manufacturers and power exchange station operators.
Auto enterprises responded positively and expected to accelerate the implementation of power exchange network and products in 2022
1) Most mainstream car companies have launched replacement electric models. On December 28, 2021, at the conference on the operation of taxi power exchange network in national power exchange pilot cities held in Nanjing, SAIC passenger car and Dongfeng passenger car signed cooperation agreements on electric vehicle replacement with six major vehicle operation companies in Nanjing. Up to now, Weilai, BAIC, SAIC, Geely, Chang'an, FAW, GAC, Dongfeng and other automobile enterprises have launched electric passenger models and have successively delivered them to customers. Among them, Weilai is mainly for consumers, and the replacement electric vehicles of other car enterprises are mainly provided to taxi operation companies at this stage. 2) The construction of exchange power station has been significantly accelerated. As of October 2021, the number of power exchange stations in China was 1086, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. In December 2021, Weilai announced that there were 700 replacement power stations, a year-on-year increase of + 300% compared with 177 at the end of 2020. We believe that the serious shortage of private parking spaces in China leads to limited coverage of household charging piles and high power exchange efficiency of power exchange stations (less than 5 minutes for single vehicle, up to 300 + times per day). It is an ideal energy supplement solution for new energy vehicles. It is expected to realize the switching from tob to TOC and gradually improve the penetration rate within 3-5 years.
Investment suggestion: power exchange related: it is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) (power exchange connector). Vehicle and parts: we believe that the growth center of the vehicle market is expected to be 10% + in 2022. From the perspective of medium and long-term investment, there is no need to worry about the degree of chip mitigation. It is recommended to actively participate in the replenishment market. 1. It is recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) of the upward cycle of the product and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) with large replenishment space. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to achieve domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automobile industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automobile intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy automobile industry is less than expected.
