\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
Events
The company issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express.
During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.029 billion yuan, an increase of 25.37% over the same period of last year; The operating profit was 2.361 billion yuan, an increase of 39.94% over the same period last year; The total profit was 2.365 billion yuan, an increase of 41.65% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.727 billion yuan, an increase of 35.37% over the same period last year; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.484 billion yuan, an increase of 19.45% over the same period of last year.
Brief comment
The reform of products and channels has been gradually launched, and the operation has continued to improve in the past 21 years.
In the first year of the 14th five year plan, the company seized a new round of development opportunities and started a new round of high-quality development with the determination of "secondary entrepreneurship". In 2021, with the concerted efforts of product and channel reform, the company's revenue scale successfully exceeded the 5 billion yuan mark, and the annual revenue reached 5.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.37%; Corresponding to the parent net interest rate of 34.34% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.54 PCT. The company achieved a year-on-year growth of 2.75 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, including a year-on-year growth of 2.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 577 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.39%; Corresponding to the fourth quarter, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 41.20%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.07pct. In the fourth quarter, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly, mainly due to the fluctuation of non operating profit and loss in the quarter caused by land transfer. In 2021q4, the company deducted the net profit attributable to the parent company to 378 million yuan, a slight decrease of 5.50% over the same period. It is expected that the main reasons are: ① the company increased the investment in brand advertising of medium and high-end products represented by Hexiang 518; ② The group purchase cost of the company increased.
Hui liquor consumption was upgraded at the right time, and xiangkouzi enjoyed the concentrated dividend of brands in the province.
In recent years, Baijiu consumption in Anhui has two main trends, namely consumption upgrading and brand concentration. In 2021, the epidemic situation in Anhui was better than before. The recovery of economic activities and consumption in the province was stable. From the Mid Autumn Festival and the Spring Festival Baijiu consumption season, Anhui Baijiu consumption demand continued to improve. With the continuous improvement of the level of economic development in the province, Baijiu consumption is also showing an uptrend. The top grade liquor (5 years and above products) is ushering in a new round of volume in the trend of consumption upgrading and brand concentration. In May 2021, the company launched Jianxiang 518 single product to seize the 500 yuan opportunity price band and improve the price band occupation of the product matrix. Aiming at the flat investment promotion and innovation channel of Jianxiang 518, the company is expected to share the market upgrading dividend of Huijiu 500 + price band in the next 2-3 years, becoming a new growth point of the company's performance.
In terms of channels, the company has strengthened channel reform in the past 21 years. On the one hand, it has strengthened the management and assessment of dealers to fully stimulate the enthusiasm and initiative of dealers. On the other hand, it has strengthened the investment of marketing personnel, strengthened the control over the implementation of channel policies, and adopted the method of territorial recruitment for marketing personnel to improve the stability of the team. From the perspective of the progress of channel adjustment, the adjustment of southern and Northern Anhui is smooth. With the completion of Hefei marketing center, the marketing reform of the provincial capital is also expected to make a breakthrough.
Anhui Baijiu consumption is stable during the Spring Festival. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) can start a good start.
During the Spring Festival, Anhui had better control of epidemic situation. Baijiu mainstream consumption scenario was less affected, and the flow of overloaded people resumed. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) had a better performance in the Spring Festival. As of the first ten days of March, the average progress of dealers' payment collection is expected to be 25% - 30%. From the inventory digestion tracked after the festival, the inventory removal speed during the Spring Festival is faster than that in previous years, and some markets have a year-on-year increase of 15% - 25%. The company can still make a good start in 22 years.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of 5.029, 6.133 and 7.235 billion yuan, net profit attributable to parent company of 1.727, 2.001 and 2.416 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 2.88, 3.33 and 4.03 yuan / share, corresponding PE of 24.9x, 21.5x and 17.8x, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The market expansion outside the province is less than expected, and the competition in the province is intensified.
