\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022.
Comments:
The large amount of raised investment projects and the increase of government subsidies have driven the rapid growth of the company's performance. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be RMB 190 million to RMB 210 million, with a year-on-year increase of 146.10% - 172%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non profits was 130145 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.12% - 95.32%. The main reasons for the company's performance growth: the company's IPO raised investment projects, over raised projects and convertible bond projects have been put into operation successively (by the end of 2021, the company's annual capacity of carbon matrix composites is 1600 tons), and the company's capacity and output have increased significantly compared with the same period of last year; Government subsidies have increased.
The non-public offering of shares has reached the reply stage of the second round of examination and inquiry letter, and we pay attention to the progress of the offering. After deducting the issuance expenses, the total amount of funds raised by the company's non-public offering of shares will be used for the capacity expansion project of high-purity and large-size advanced carbon matrix composites, the construction project of Jinbo Research Institute and supplementary working capital. Among them, the capacity expansion project of high-purity and large-size advanced carbon matrix composites can produce a higher purity thermal field, so as to meet the production demand of large-size and n-type silicon wafers. As the mass production conversion efficiency of perc battery approaches the limit, the battery factory has increased the capacity expansion plan of n-type battery. It is expected that the capacity of TOPCON battery will gradually enter the mass production stage in 2022, which is expected to increase the demand for n-type silicon wafer, so as to drive the demand for high-purity heat field. At present, the company's non-public offering of shares has not been approved by the exchange. The implementation of subsequent raised investment projects will significantly improve the company's carbon matrix composite production capacity, enrich the company's product structure, enhance the company's market share and consolidate the company's leading position.
Investment suggestion: without considering the dilution effect of non-public offering of shares for the time being, it is estimated that the fully diluted EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 9.20 yuan and 11.37 yuan respectively. Calculated according to the closing price of 240.55 yuan / share on March 14, the corresponding PE will be 26.14 and 21.17 times respectively. As a leading enterprise in the field of carbon matrix composites in China, the company will fully benefit from the capacity expansion of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers and the development of new businesses in the future. At present, investors are worried that potential competitors challenge the company's industry position and the intensification of industry competition will have an adverse impact on the company. However, we believe that the barriers in the field of carbon matrix composites are high, and the leading enterprises have obvious advantages in technology accumulation, product verification, production cost control and so on. Therefore, we maintain the "buy" investment rating of the company.
Risk tip: the industry's production expansion speed is too fast, and the profitability of hot field materials is at risk of decline; Risk that the company's production capacity construction progress is less than expected; The price of carbon fiber and other raw materials rises, and the cost is less than the expected risk.
