Photovoltaic: the tasks and objectives of the scenery industry will be released in 2022 to continuously promote the high-quality development of scenery. On December 24, at the national energy work conference in 2022, the National Energy Administration issued seven key tasks for energy work in 2022, clearly proposing the need to accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution, promote the development and consumption of wind power photovoltaic in the East, central and southern regions, actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power and the base development of wind power photovoltaic in the “Three North” regions, and pay close attention to deserts, Gobi The construction of desert wind power photovoltaic base has started the implementation of “wind control action in thousands of villages and townships” and “Sunshine Action for thousands of families”. The price of silicon materials and silicon wafers continues to drop, and the terminal demand is expected to grow rapidly. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the price of silicon materials continued to decline last week, narrowing to about 2.5%. On the silicon wafer, the silicon wafer inventory was completely digested last week, and the decline also showed a narrowing trend. From the perspective of inventory, the silicon wafer inventory has basically been completely cleared after price reduction and goods rejection at the end of the year; From the perspective of demand, the price reduction of components makes the terminal demand turn better, which stimulates the shipment of silicon wafers to a certain extent. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) announced a new round of silicon wafer prices on December 30, further down from the prices announced on December 2. Since November, the price of the industrial chain has been lowered to make room for the price reduction of photovoltaic installation cost. It is expected that the installation in December will be faster than expected.
Wind power: the newly added grid connection of Haifeng in the fourth quarter is expected to exceed expectations, and more wind power related plans are released. Compared with the expectation given in our annual strategy that the new sea breeze capacity is expected to reach more than 8-12gw in 2021, even considering the supply shortage of Construction Ships and impact hammers, the actual grid connection efficiency of the industry still shows signs of exceeding the expectation. According to incomplete statistics, it is expected to finally realize full capacity grid connection in 2021, and the project capacity has exceeded 17gw. Therefore, we revise China’s 2021 sea breeze grid connection expectation accordingly. In addition, on December 27, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on printing and distributing the development plan for coastal areas of Jiangsu (2021-2025). In the plan, it is specially proposed to speed up the construction of offshore ten million kilowatt offshore wind power base and plan and study the deep sea ten million kilowatt offshore wind power base. On December 28, Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the notice on printing and distributing the construction plan of the first batch of new wind power projects in the province. It is planned to build 34 new wind power projects with a total installed capacity of 7.25gw. All the projects must be completed and put into operation before the end of 2023. In addition, many places have issued priority power generation plans for 2022. In 2022, Xinjiang power grid has priority power purchase plans of 50.753 billion kwh, and wind turbines have priority power generation plans of 7.934 billion kwh; Ningxia’s total electricity consumption is expected to be 122.5 billion kwh, and the priority power generation of wind power and photovoltaic is planned to be 7.5 billion kwh.
Industrial control: manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom and bust line, and the economy recovered. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s manufacturing PMI in December was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month on month. According to the macro analysis of Zeping, it is mainly due to the continuous promotion of policies to support the high economic development of new infrastructure, new energy and scientific and technological innovation. The PMI production index was 51.4%, down 0.6 percentage points month on month, the PMI new order index was 49.7%, up 0.3 percentage points month on month, and the new export index was 48.1%, down 0.4 percentage points month on month. The overall supply side boom recovered, but the demand side is still in the contraction range. 2022 is expected to be the key period of economic cycle recovery, which is expected to reach the bottom.
Investment proposal and investment object
The photovoltaic sector recommends Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012, buy), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438, buy), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459, buy), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) (688680, buy), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (603806, buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599, not rated); The wind power sector recommends Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (300850, buy), Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) (603218, overweight). It is recommended to pay attention to Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) (002531, Unrated), Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) (002487, Unrated), Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) (603985, Unrated), Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (603606, Unrated). It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (300124, not rated) in the industrial control section.
Risk statement
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected; The industrial control industry grew less than expected.
