Summary of this issue:
The industry style has shifted from good track to valuation repair.
Since 2018, pharmaceutical investment has paid more attention to long-term growth. The positions of pharmaceutical funds have focused on high-quality tracks, and the valuations of innovative medicine and equipment, pharmaceutical consumption, medical services and CXO have increased significantly. In 2020, the covid-19 epidemic pushed the average valuation of leading white horse stocks to 80-100 times.
In 2021, there were frequent policies in the pharmaceutical industry, and the long-term investment value of the above tracks still exists, but the short-term policies, performance and valuation need to be digested. The investment style of the pharmaceutical industry turned to undervalued sectors. The valuations of traditional Chinese medicine, general medicine, low-value consumables, pharmacies and other sectors have fallen to the bottom, with valuations of about 20 times, and the valuations of some stocks have even fallen to about 10 times, Valuation repair will be ushered in 2022.
Traditional Chinese medicine: with strong policy support, equity incentive of many enterprises is expected to improve their enthusiasm.
The guidance on medical insurance supporting the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese Medicine issued by the medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese medicine fully supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry, which means that the most important payer supports traditional Chinese medicine, and the industry has entered a new development cycle. In 2021, more than 10 listed companies of traditional Chinese Medicine issued equity incentives.
Suggestions: 1) brand traditional Chinese medicine: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) ; 2) OTC price increase varieties: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) ; 3) Equity incentive: China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600750) .
Vaccine: it is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , with high performance commitment. From 2021 to 2023, the equity incentive targets were RMB 570 / 85 / 1.3 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 47%. Acting as a pet rabies vaccine opened a new performance growth point, and the R & D pipeline was constantly enriched. In 2022, the corresponding PE was only 23 times.
Devices: the performance of low value consumables and medical equipment companies continues to grow, and the valuation is expected to usher in repair. Suggestions: 1) low value consumables: Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.Ltd(300453) , Zhende Medical Co.Ltd(603301) ; 2) Medical equipment: Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) .
Pharmacies: M & A integration will shape industry giants, improve varieties and improve profitability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) .
General medicine: the impact of centralized purchase policy is small and the valuation is at the bottom. Suggestions: China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) , Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(688658) , Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) .
