Industry core view:
Last week, the media industry (Shenwan) rose 3.45%, ranking sixth in the market, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The Kwai has strategic cooperation with the US group and interconnects to integrate multiple scenes into local businesses. We believe that the interconnection between the two sides can bring greater increment to the market space of the living industry to a certain extent, promote further harmonious operation, and realize the positive cycle of win-win platforms, users, talents, merchants and business ecology. "Fast copy" was stopped and the new variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was put on file. We think this transformation is a new and bold attempt, but the entertainment of the new program will be weakened after rectification. Whether it can relay the high popularity and high ratings of fast book is full of uncertainty, and the TV ratings may be affected. We will continue to pay attention to the performance of the variety.
Key investment points:
Games: 1) Gamma data released the report on the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the global mobile game market in 2021. The global mobile game market was US $93.2 billion, an increase of 7.3%. After the rapid outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the growth rate of the global mobile game market slowed down in 2021. Overall, the gradual disappearance of the economic dividend of households caused by the epidemic is the main reason. In addition, with the intensification of market competition and the rise of CPI and PPI in many countries around the world, people's concerns about inflation or rising prices may also affect the growth rate of game expenditure. 2) Steam announced the best game in 2021, and "forever robbery" was at the top of the double list. On the steam best game list in 2021, Netease 24 studio's "eternal robbery" scored particularly well, ranking among the best-selling games and the hottest new products. 3) Netease invests in Shiyue Xingcheng, which focuses on meta universe, super realism and virtual personification. Shiyue Xingcheng is mainly engaged in digital content R & D and operation. At present, the company has four virtual idols with copyright. In the future, it may further explore the "meta universe + business" model.
Internet application: 1) Kwai Tai and US alliance strategic cooperation: interconnection for local life businesses into multiple scenes. In December 27th, the Kwai Tong announced the strategic cooperation with the US mission. The two sides will open up the platform based on Kwai Kai to open up content scene marketing, online transactions and offline service capabilities, and create a "one-stop" full consumption link for users. 2) "Fast copy" was stopped and the new variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was put on file. Mango TV's ace variety "happy camp" was announced to stop broadcasting, reform and replacement. The new variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was broadcast on January 1. The new highlight lies in the addition of AI host, and his partner he Jiong co hosted this new program.
Film and television theaters: on New Year's day, "embracing you through a cold night" became the top box office with a box office of 319.0664 million, accounting for 31.2%. The remaining two films with high expectations are close to each other. The total box office of the program was 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%. From the perspective of word-of-mouth, the box office reputation of films on New Year's Day is poor, and Douban does not exceed 6 points. The box office of several films shows a downward trend of "diving day by day". The bonus period has passed, and it is difficult to sustain the follow-up box office.
Investment suggestion: comply with the strict regulatory environment of the policy, promote industrial reform, and grasp the innovation needs brought by the post epidemic era and Z era. 1) Game: the epidemic dividend has faded. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks in the product line that are developed for the new generation of users, have well-known IP, have high expectations and good test feedback; At the same time, driven by the concept of "meta universe", it is expected that the ecological construction of VR content will become the focus of the market in 2022; 2) Film and television cinemas: focus on leading cinemas and individual stocks; 3) Film and television series: diversified theatres and mini dramas will be the focus of the development of the video industry. It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with strong content IP commercialization ability; 4) Advertising marketing: focus on individual stocks of ladder media.
Risk factors: stricter regulatory policies, delayed launch of Xinyou and its performance is lower than expected, and going abroad
