Market in the reporting period:
During the reporting period, the computer industry outperformed the market. The computer industry rose by 1.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.29%, and the computer industry index outperformed by 1.31pct, ranking 15th among the 31 industries of Shenwan level.
Market in 2021:
1) The overall performance of the computer industry in 2021 is average. In 2021, the computer industry rose by 4.23%, the CSI 300 index fell by 3.39%, and the computer industry outperformed by 7.62pct, ranking 17th among the 31 industries in Shenwan level. From the perspective of Shenwan’s secondary subdivided industries, the computer equipment, it services and software development sectors increased by 5.44%, 4.37% and 2.33% respectively in 2021.
2) 2021q4 computer market recovers with strong momentum. The computer industry fell significantly in the first and third quarters of 2021, but rebounded in the second and fourth quarters. Especially in the fourth quarter of 2021, the computer industry has gradually rebounded to outperform the market, and the gap between rise and fall has been widening.
3) At present, the valuation of the computer industry is moderate. By the end of 2021, the PE of the computer industry was 53.29 times, slightly higher than the historical average (52.90 times), and the Pb was 4.22 times, lower than the historical average (4.62 times). For most of 2021, the valuation of the computer industry has been in a relatively reasonable range, fluctuating near the historical mean level.
Key information:
The 14th five year plan for national informatization was issued
The Ministry of industry and information technology and other eight departments jointly issued the intelligent manufacturing development plan during the 14th five year plan
The 14th five year plan for digital transportation development was officially released
The 14th five year plan for the development of Shanghai’s electronic information industry was officially released
The two departments jointly issued the guidelines for the construction of industrial Internet comprehensive standardization system (version 2021)
This week’s view:
The computer industry is a strong “policy + technology” driven industry. At the end of 2021, under the instructions of the national 14th five year plan, supporting policies such as the 14th five year plan for national informatization, the 14th five year plan for intelligent manufacturing development, the 14th five year plan for digital transportation, the 14th five year plan for the development of Shanghai’s electronic information industry, and the guidelines for the construction of industrial Internet comprehensive standardization system (version 2021) were intensively issued, It has made more detailed policy explanation and construction objectives for the future development of the whole computer industry and subdivided fields such as artificial intelligence, industrial software and intelligent transportation, which is a strong support for the growth of the computer industry. It is recommended that investors pay attention to it for a long time.
Considering the strong rebound trend of computer market at the end of 2021, the gap with the increase of the market is gradually widening; At present, the overall valuation of the computer industry has been digested to a reasonable level; Due to the intensive introduction of policies at the end of 2021 and other factors, we believe that the market’s attention to the computer industry is expected to rise in the spring of 2022, and the market trend may continue to be good. It is recommended that investors focus on it.
Risk tips:
Market fluctuation risk; The development speed of artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, Internet and other information technologies is lower than expected.
