Zhou’s view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric, reshaping the industrial order, and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. New forces successively announced the delivery volume in December 2021 and the whole year, and the annual delivery volume reached a record high. In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the gentle decline is in line with expectations. The subsidy scale is released from the original ceiling of 2 million units. It is expected that under the stronger than expected policy support, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 5.5 million in 2022. It is firmly recommended that the independent rise of complete vehicles + electric intelligent industry chain.
Passenger cars: 10489 / 16000 / 14087 / 10127 / 7807 / vehicles will be delivered by Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal / Hezhong / Zero run respectively in December 2021. Except Weilai, the delivery of other single months will reach a new high; In the whole year, 9.1/9.8/9.0/7.0/43000 vehicles were delivered respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 109% / + 263% / + 177% / + 362% / + 279%. The annual delivery volume reached a record high. Polar krypton 001 was listed in October and delivered 3796 vehicles in December, a month on month increase of + 88.7%. The transformation of electric intelligence promotes the great transformation of the vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through the transformation. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], pay attention to [ Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) H], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: electric intelligent reshapes the industrial order, firmly looks at many parts, and recommends tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain + electric intelligent incremental parts:
1. Optimistic about tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain:
1) Tesla industrial chain: Tesla will sell 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 88%, and the target is to reach 20 million vehicles by 2030. The accelerated growth of sales drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become more steep. It is recommended to recommend more flexible [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], benefit targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ] and potential benefit targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) ].
2) Byd Company Limited(002594) industrial chain: the sales volume will be 430000 in 2020, it is expected to exceed 700000 in 2021, and 1.5 million in this year, including 300000 and 1 million DM-I Series in 2021-2022, respectively. The volume is rapid. It is recommended to [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], and the benefit targets are [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ].
3) Rivian industrial chain: recommend [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ], benefit target [ Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co.Ltd(603730) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Tianjin Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002510) ]. Rivian adopts a sliding plate chassis platform (i.e. non load-bearing body structure + wire transmission steering / braking system + battery pack and chassis integration), which is expected to lead the industry innovation and become the mainstream trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the layout of wire controlled braking [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ] and the beneficiary object of hub motor [ Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ].
2. Optimistic about electric intelligent incremental parts:
1) Electrification increment: three power system industrial chain [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) ]; New energy thermal management industry chain [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight industrial chain [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) Intelligent increment: autopilot industry chain [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefiting from [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit industry chain [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in November, China sold 26000 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 47.5% and a month on month increase of – 10.6% (299600 motorcycles were sold from January to November, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.2%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. Their share will focus on independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
Weekly topic: air suspension of incremental components
Air suspension takes air as the medium and is made of its compression elasticity. It has the advantages of improving handling performance and comfort. Under the condition of electric intelligence, the willingness of the main engine plant to stack materials + terminal acceptance is higher than expected. The air suspension is on the eve of scale matching. The supporting models are lowered from the original 700000 yuan to 300000 yuan. The overall penetration rate is expected to increase to 15% in 2026, with a corresponding market space of more than 40 billion yuan and CAGR of more than 30%. With the advantages of rapid response and cost, domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate the improvement of supporting facilities.
This week’s market: overall weaker than the market, led by auto parts
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 0.97%, ranking 26th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (up 0.34%). Among the segments, other transportation equipment, passenger cars, trucks and automobile services increased by 4.1%, 2.3%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively; Passenger cars and auto parts fell 1.3% and 1.4% respectively.
This week’s data: strong terminal demand, retail sales increased month on month
In the fourth week of December, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 85000, with a year-on-year increase of + 27% and a month on month increase of + 1%; The average daily retail sales volume was 82000, with a year-on-year increase of + 6% and a month on month increase of + 26%.
Risk statement
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
