The new tobacco industry is a golden track with low penetration and high growth. In 2020, the overall market scale of new-type tobacco will be US $41.9 billion (about 268.2 billion yuan). According to categories, new-type tobacco can be divided into atomized electronic cigarette and heating non combustion (HNB), of which the market scale of atomized electronic cigarette is about US $21.1 billion and that of HNB is about US $20.8 billion. In 2020, the global penetration rate of atomized e-cigarettes was only 2.5%, and the U.S. market was the largest consumer market of atomized e-cigarettes. In 2020, China’s domestic market of atomized e-cigarettes exceeded 14 billion yuan, and the penetration rate was only 0.8%. There is great growth potential in the future. The global penetration rate of heating non combustion is 2.4% in 2020. The demand is mainly concentrated in Japan and South Korea, accounting for more than 50%. China has not yet opened HNB sales. We assume that by 2030, the global penetration rate of new-type tobacco will reach 30% and continue to squeeze the market space of traditional cigarettes, so the overall market scale of new-type tobacco will be nearly 300 billion US dollars (about 1.9 trillion yuan), with nearly 10 times the growth space in the long run.
The orderly opening of the new tobacco policy will be the general trend of the industry in the future. With the rapid development of new tobacco and the verification of its harm reduction effect, countries have successively issued regulatory policies and taxes to regulate the development of the industry. On October 13, 2021, PMTA of the United States approved three cigarette flavor atomized e-cigarettes of VUSE for the first time, gave legal status to atomized e-cigarettes, and various states successively included new tobacco into the tax system; The EU plans to revise the new tobacco tax rules in Q4, 2021, and the UK continues to introduce policies to encourage the development of new tobacco. Analyzing China’s existing tobacco management system, we believe that China tobacco will have the greatest voice in the field of new tobacco, and the license will raise the industry access threshold; The promotion of new tobacco will be an important supplement to China’s tobacco profits and taxes.
Global tobacco giants are actively laying out new types of tobacco and opening up incremental markets. Among the top five tobacco giants in the world: with iqos as the core, Philip Morris International has actively arranged the HNB market and accelerated the transformation to new tobacco. The sales revenue of 2021q1-3 smokeless products has accounted for 29% of the total revenue; British American tobacco is in a period of rapid development in both atomized e-cigarette and HNB business. The market share of VUSE, the main atomized e-cigarette brand, has continuously increased, the market share of sales in the United States from 2021 / 11 / 20 to 2021 / 12 / 18 has increased to 34%, and the share of heated non combustible product glo in core markets such as Japan and Russia has continuously increased; JT adopts the dual brand strategy, the main HNB brand ploom in Japan, and the overseas acquisition logic enters the atomized e-cigarette market; Korean tobacco launched HNB brand lil, cooperated with competitor Philip Morris International to further open overseas markets and realize comprehensive expansion; Imperial Tobacco has a late layout and low contribution in new tobacco. It announced a new strategic plan to focus on key markets to seek development opportunities.
From the perspective of industrial chain, enterprises with high technical barriers and deep binding with customers will continue to benefit. Upstream: synthetic nicotine has a broad overseas market. Both atomized e-cigarette and HNB need to add nicotine. Synthetic nicotine is superior to natural nicotine in terms of raw materials, purity and experience. The scope of application includes new tobacco, medical and pesticide. According to our calculation, the demand for nicotine in overseas new tobacco will exceed 2000 tons in 2025. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Zhuhai Rundu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002923) ] and [ Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) ]. Midstream: the head enterprise is expected to take the lead in obtaining production license, tighten supervision and further consolidate the head position. The core barrier of manufacturers of atomized electronic cigarette appliances comes from the R & D of atomizing core. The core of HNB appliances lies in the heating technology of cigarette appliances and its patent barrier. The company’s atomized ceramic core technology is the world’s leading and closely bound with downstream major customers. It is recommended that [smore international] pay attention to [ Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics] and [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ]. With the opening of HNB in China, it is suggested to pay attention to [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ] and [ Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) ] in the layout of HNB industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the excellent management team and the leading brand of atomized electronic cigarette in China [fog core technology].
Risk warning: the intensity of policy supervision exceeds expectations; Relevant technical iteration and update risks; The penetration rate of new tobacco did not meet expectations. Core points
Note: the report uses the central parity rate of USD 2021 / 12 / 31 to RMB 6.4. Unless otherwise specified, the currency unit is RMB.
