Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 890-920 million, with a year-on-year increase of 317.71% – 331.79%, greatly exceeding the market expectation. The company released the performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 890-920 million, with a year-on-year increase of 317.71% – 331.79%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company is deducted from RMB 890-830 million, with a year-on-year increase of 399.58% – 418.31%. Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 341-371 million, with a year-on-year increase of 241% – 271% and a month on month increase of 50% – 63%, deducting the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 331-361 million, with a year-on-year increase of 366% – 408% and a month on month increase of 61% – 76%. With the continuous penetration of high nickel technology in the terminal, the sales volume of ncm811, ni90 and above high nickel and ultra-high nickel series products of the company increased significantly.
Q4 volume rose at the same time, with a high increase for two consecutive years. The company’s 2021q4 shipment is expected to be about 19000 tons, with an increase of 35% +, and the annual shipment is expected to be 53000-54000 tons, more than double year-on-year. In terms of profitability, we expect that the company’s non net profit deducted per ton in 2021q4 will be about 1.7-2 yuan / ton, with a ring increase of about 25% (Q3 non net profit deducted will be about 14000 yuan / ton). Among them, we expect that the inventory revenue will contribute to the main increment. Superimposed on the improvement of the company’s customer structure and the continuous increase of the integration proportion in 2021, we expect that the non net profit deducted per ton in the whole year will be 15000 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 63%. In February 2022, the company’s new production capacity reached production capacity. We expect Q1 company’s production scheduling to increase by 10% month on month. At the end of the year, we expect 250000 tons of production capacity. With the smooth release of production capacity, we expect 150000 tons of annual shipments, doubling growth for two consecutive years. Excluding the one-time impact of inventory income, we expect the net profit per ton to maintain about 13000-15000 yuan / ton.
The progress direction of high nickel industry, and the leading position of the company is stable. The performance of high nickel batteries has been greatly improved and there is much room for cost reduction. As the general trend of the industry, the share will continue to increase. 2022h1 is expected to accelerate with the mass production penetration of 4680 batteries. The company is the leader of high nickel cathode, with a capacity of 90000 tons at the end of Q3 and a capacity of 30000 tons newly added. By the end of 2021, we expect to add 30000 tons and a capacity of 120000 tons at the end of the year. In addition, 100000 tons of Guizhou phase II and 70000 tons of South Korea phase I are under construction. We expect that the capacity will exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022. The company is the main supplier of high nickel in Ningde. We expect the company to account for 50 ~ 60%, and sign a supply agreement of 30000 tons of high nickel cathode with Funeng in 2022. In addition, ski, honeycomb and Yiwei will increase significantly in 2022, with high order certainty. We expect that the company’s shipment is expected to reach 150000 tons in 2022, the same as + 150%, with a continuous high growth for two consecutive years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company is a leader in high nickel and the profit per ton exceeds the expectation, the net profit attributable to the parent company of our Shangxiu company from 2021 to 2023 will reach 917 / 2013 / 2886 million yuan (the original expectation was 842 / 1863 / 2786 million yuan), an increase of 330% / 120% / 43% at the same time, and the corresponding PE is 56 / 26 / 18x. We will give 40xpe for 22 years, the target price is 179.6 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified
