Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced the production and operation in 2021, and it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.2% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 52 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.3%. According to preliminary accounting, in 2021, the company produced 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and 28200 tons of series base liquor.
1、 In 2021, the operation reached the goal of exceeding the beginning of the year
In 2021, the total operating revenue increased by 11.2% year-on-year, exceeding the target set at the beginning of the year by 10.5%. Among them, the operating revenue of Maotai liquor is about 93.2 billion yuan (+ 9.9%), and that of series liquor is about 12.6 billion yuan (+ 26.1%). It is speculated that the high single digit increase in the ton price of Maotai liquor in 2021 is mainly due to the large volume of direct channels; The higher growth of series liquor mainly depends on the increase of ton price, the price increase of series liquor at the beginning of the year and structural adjustment. We assume that the proportion of direct sales channel revenue in the whole year is equal to that in the first three quarters. It is expected that the annual direct sales revenue will increase by dozens and the distribution revenue will be stable year-on-year.
It is estimated that the total operating revenue in the fourth quarter is about 31.9 billion yuan (+ 12.4%), of which the revenue of Maotai liquor is 28.2 billion yuan (+ 14.3%), and the revenue of series liquor is 3.06 billion yuan (+ 2.3%). The acceleration of Maotai liquor in the fourth quarter is related to the overall delivery rhythm of this year compared with the previous three quarters, and it is estimated that it is also related to the increase in ton price such as the collection of funds outside the plan in the fourth quarter and the increase in the proportion of non-standard liquor. The growth of series liquor slowed down in the fourth quarter, which is expected to be related to the advance of the Spring Festival and the corresponding initiative to control the market rhythm of Q4.
2、 The net profit margin increased slightly, which was related to the increase of taxes and the proportion of series wine
The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was about 52 billion yuan, and the net interest rate was about 47.7%, a slight increase year-on-year. It is speculated that it is related to the increase in the proportion of taxes and sales revenue of series wine. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was about 14.7 billion yuan (+ 14.5%), and the net interest rate in the fourth quarter was 46.15, an increase of 0.8pct year-on-year, mainly due to the large volume of Q4 Maotai liquor and the slowdown in the growth of series liquor.
3、 This year, Maotai base liquor is fully produced, laying a solid foundation for the 14th five year plan
56500 tons of Maotai base liquor (+ 12.5%) in 2021; The base liquor of the series is 28200 tons (+ 13.1%), and the double-digit increase of base liquor output will effectively ensure the successful completion of the 14th five year plan. With the production capacity expansion of 30000 tons of series wine reached, it will help the company develop steadily, improve the product system and realize two wheel drive.
Renhuai issued the 14th five year plan and 2035 vision outline, strongly supported the "double 100000 tons" plan in 2030, helped the continuous expansion of Maotai liquor and series liquor production capacity in the 10-year dimension, and ensured the company's supply and marketing growth of about 6 points in the next 15 years, which is the deterministic source of continuous growth of future performance.
Profit forecast and rating:
After taking office in September, the new management proposed to reform in the direction of high-quality development, including the reform of Maotai's marketing system and price system, and said that the reform direction of the price system should take the market as the principle and be based on longer-term considerations to return Maotai to commodity ownership. Since then, Feitian's unplanned price test, cancellation of unpacking policy, restart of direct e-commerce and other actions have been implemented in an orderly manner. The transaction price in Maotai market has gradually decreased reasonably, the external public opinion environment has improved, and the marketing reform is on the way.
From the perspective of the 14th five year plan, it is necessary to raise the price per ton to help achieve the plan. From the perspective of the price difference space of the actual transaction price of the factory / market, the relative abundance of finished wine in 2022, and the combined fist of marketing reform, several sufficient and necessary conditions for price increase have been formed one after another.
At the end of 2021, the company launched the Spring Festival collection action and released a new Maotai treasure, which is positioned between Pufei and 15 years. It is expected that the new Maotai 1935 plan will also be launched, and the retail guide price will be positioned at 1000 yuan +. The company will further enrich the super high-end and high-end product matrix and help upgrade the structure.
We expect that the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2023 will be 11%, 18% and 13% respectively, and the net profit growth rate will be 11%, 25% and 18% respectively. The corresponding EPS will be 41.37, 51.71 and 61.02 yuan respectively, maintaining the target price of 2500 yuan and the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: if the ex factory price increases in the future or the comprehensive sales price is lower than expected, the profit forecast and EPS under the optimistic situation may not meet the expectations.
