Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Event: Byd Company Limited(002594) released December sales data: 99100 vehicles were sold in December, a year-on-year increase of 75.97%.
2021 ended perfectly with excellent sales performance. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy passenger vehicles reached 593700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. In December, the company sold 92800 new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 3% month on month, another record high. Specifically: 1) in December, the sales volume of Han EV reached 13701, a record high, of which the sales volume of Han EV reached 10300, breaking 10000 again; 2) Dolphin sold 10016 units, breaking 10000 for the first time, with amazing performance, and gradually formed a substitute for fuel vehicles with the same price; 3) In December, the sales volume of Qin and song series was 25900 and 22400 respectively. The company has abundant orders in hand, and the Xi'an factory has resumed normal production. Later, with the mitigation of the epidemic, the sales volume is expected to rise and reach a new high.
It is expected that the volume and price will rise together in 2022. Volume increase: at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) song Pro DMI, yuan plus and other heavy-duty models have been listed successively. In 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) Dynasty series, Ocean series and warship series have many heavy-duty models on the market. According to our latest prediction, Byd Company Limited(002594) NEW energy passenger vehicle sales in 2022 are expected to exceed 1.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 130%. Price rise: on December 22, 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) song prodmi was officially launched. It is one of the new models of Byd Company Limited(002594) that attracted much attention and one of the three DMI models announced by the Ministry of industry and information technology in the morning. The guidance price of song Pro DMI is 134800-159800 yuan, and the model pricing is higher than expected. We believe that under the background of more orders and longer delivery cycle, this pre selling price is expected to bring the effect of simultaneous increase in volume and profit. If the company continues this fixed price strategy in the future, the overall average price of the company in 2022 is expected to be higher than that in 2021.
The Byd Company Limited(002594) in the next few years is worth looking forward to. In the case of substantial growth in Byd Company Limited(002594) sales in 2022, the profit of single vehicle is expected to increase significantly (the new investment in DMI is small; the depreciation & amortization of single vehicle is greatly reduced, and the cost of single vehicle is also greatly reduced; the pricing of new models rises). In addition, as more and more car companies join the ranks of hybrid vehicles, especially long-life PHEVs, our policy on PHEVs (including erevs) in 2023 is more optimistic than before. Therefore, Byd Company Limited(002594) after 2023 is still worth looking forward to - the substitution of pure electric acceleration for fuel vehicles and the continuous growth of hybrid. In addition, according to tianyancha, in 2021q3, the company successively registered four home appliance chizi (sun) companies, including Anhui Wuwei, Jiangsu Yancheng, Shandong Jinan and Zhejiang Shaoxing. The company's power battery capacity is expected to accelerate the expansion, and the external supply of blade batteries is expected to exceed expectations in the future.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.42 billion, RMB 11.28 billion and RMB 13.63 billion respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 176.8, 69.2 and 57.2 times respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price will be RMB 360 / share.
Risk tip: the subsidy has declined sharply; The promotion of new products is less than expected
