Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
Event overview: on January 3, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 890-920 million, with a year-on-year increase of 317.71% – 331.79%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 880-830 million after non deduction, with a year-on-year increase of 399.58% – 418.31%.
21q4 performed well. According to the calculation of the median value of the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 341-371 million yuan, with a ring increase of 49.8% – 63.0%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 331-361 million yuan, with a ring increase of 61.7-76.4%. We expect the shipment to reach about 20000 tons, the net profit per ton will reach 17000-18000 yuan / ton, an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton month on month, and part of the profit comes from supply chain management.
Actively expand production, consolidate the leading position of high nickel, and maintain a high net profit per ton. Volume: the positive material capacity of the company at the end of 21h1 is 60000 tons, and the capacity of Q3 is increased by 30000 tons. The capacity exceeds 120000 tons at the end of 21 years. The shipment of q1-3 is more than 35000 tons in 21 years, and the annual shipment will be close to 60000 tons. The company expands production as needed, and is expected to be full production and sales in 22 years. Considering the planning of Xiantao 400000 tons positive electrode base, the long-term capacity is expected to exceed 500000 tons. The company has an obvious volume in Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) and honeycomb energy, and the customer structure is constantly diversified. Profit: the company’s profitability has been continuously improved. According to the predicted average value, the annual net profit per ton has reached more than 16000 / ton, mainly due to: 1) the market leader in the shipment of high nickel polycrystals, and the increase in the proportion of the shipment of single crystal high energy density products and ultra-high nickel products above 9 series. 2) The self supply rate of precursors was increased to 30%. 3) The company’s full production and full sales bring scale effect, cost reduction and efficiency increase. 4) New integration: the company has reduced the cost of the supply chain by signing a 4-year 180000 ton precursor agreement with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ; Invest in the acquisition of 70% equity of Fenggu energy conservation, and strengthen the engineering and technical strength in production line design and equipment development.
The company actively develops ultra-high nickel, sodium ion and other material systems. The company’s ultra-high nickel system above ni90 began to ship, and its energy density is higher than 8 series, which is favored by end customers; At the same time, the company has layout and leading technology in a variety of material systems such as single crystal 8-series, single crystal / polycrystalline 9-series NCA and NCMA quaternion. The company’s sodium ion positive electrode material has started a pilot test in 2020, and has 21 years of ton production experience of ferromanganese Prussian white sodium ion battery material, which is the same as the microstructure of Prussian white positive electrode material displayed in the catl sodium ion battery press conference. Prussian white is ferrous ferrocyanide, a Prussian blue compound containing high sodium. The company is the main supplier of high nickel cathode of catl. We expect that the company is also expected to continue to cooperate with catl in the field of sodium ion battery cathode in the future.
Investment suggestion: considering the rapid growth of the company’s 21q4 performance, with a production capacity of 40000 tons at the end of 20 and 120000 tons at the end of 21, and the rapid expansion of production capacity in the future, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 910 million yuan, 1907 million yuan and 2787 million yuan (previously predicted to be 744 million yuan, 1545 million yuan and 2290 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 327%, 110% and 46% respectively, The current share price corresponds to 57, 27 and 19 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. Referring to the 108 times PE of CS new energy vehicle index (TTM, closing on December 31), considering that the company is the leader of high nickel ternary, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of terminal new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The production expansion speed is lower than expected; Competition for cathode materials has intensified.
