Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
On January 1, 2022, the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 930-1.15 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.43% - 60.05%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 798-1042 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.99% - 82.8%; The performance is in line with expectations.
The price of sweetener rose, and the company's annual performance increased rapidly. According to the company's performance forecast, under the general trend of global sugar reduction and low saccharification, based on the continuous optimization of product cost and the continuous release of production capacity, the company has established its leading position in the sweetener industry with high product cost performance. At the same time, affected by the rapid rise of bulk chemical raw materials, the company raised the sales price of food additives such as sweeteners and spices by different ranges in combination with the market situation, promoting the rapid growth of food additives business throughout the year. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the prices of sucralose and Acer honey products of the company have been raised for many times since the third quarter. Among them, the quarterly average prices of sucralose Q3 and Q4 were 238800 yuan / ton and 434000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and 117%; The quarterly average prices of ansaimi Q3 and Q4 were 70400 yuan / ton and 93400 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6% and 56.45%. The price of sweetener products of the company has increased significantly, mainly due to the price rise of upstream raw materials and the improvement of downstream demand. In addition, the company's new project with an annual output of 5000 tons of sucralose was put into operation, and the capacity load was gradually full and effectively released, further promoting the growth of the demand for sucralose in the downstream market.
To realize the extension of vertical integration, the company is expected to deeply benefit from the price increase. At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 12000 tons of Acer honey and 8000 tons of sucralose. It is the leader in the industry of Acer honey and sucralose. Their global production capacity accounts for 60% and 50% respectively. In addition, the company currently has an annual production capacity of 1000 tons of methyl maltol and 4000 tons of ethyl maltol, and another production capacity of 1000 tons of methyl maltol and 4000 tons of ethyl maltol will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2021. The company is committed to the vertical extension of the industrial chain. At present, it has realized the self-production of important raw materials in the upstream of acesulfame, sucralose and methylethyl maltol, such as diketene, sulfoxide chloride and furfural. It has an annual production capacity of 10000 tons of diketene, 40000 tons of sulfoxide chloride and 10000 tons of furfural, which is conducive to reducing the cost fluctuation caused by the company's purchased raw materials.
Investment suggestion: we believe that under the consumption concept of "Zero sugar and low calorie", the company's demand for sweeteners is expected to continue to grow. In addition, the company has actively extended vertically to the upstream of the industrial chain in recent years, producing important raw materials, and the products have cost advantages. It is expected that in the future, due to the impact of environmental protection and other factors, the new capacity of sucralose may be limited. The price of sucralose is expected to remain high next year. The basic earnings per share of the company in 2022 will be increased to 2.49 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 27 times and 21 times of 2021 and 2022 P / E, maintaining a cautious recommendation rating.
Risk warning: risk of weakening downstream demand; Risk of falling product price; Risk of intensified industry competition; The progress of projects under construction and proposed projects is less than expected, and natural and man-made disasters and other force majeure events occur.
