Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Event: the company issued the announcement on production and operation in 2021. In 2021, the company produced about 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and about 28200 tons of series base liquor; It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan (including about 93.2 billion yuan for Maotai liquor and about 12.6 billion yuan for series liquor), an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
The performance of the fourth quarter of a single year accelerated to a perfect end, and the base liquor production capacity expanded by 12.47% year-on-year. In 2021, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 109 billion yuan / 52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% / 11.3% respectively, of which the revenue growth of Maotai Liquor / Series liquor was 9.9% / 26.1% respectively; The revenue of series liquor accounted for 11.56%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.02pct; Overall, it continued to maintain steady growth and accelerated the development of a series of wines. The company's 21q4 single quarter revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 12.42% / 14.48% year-on-year, which was accelerated compared with the growth of 10.75% / 10.17% in the previous three quarters, of which the profit growth was more obvious. After the new management took office, the company's operation returned to marketization, and the smooth sales channels promoted the acceleration of performance. In addition, thanks to the full completion of the "13th five year plan" Maotai liquor technical transformation and expansion project in September 2020, the production capacity will be fully released in 2021. In 2021, the company's Maotai liquor and series base liquor will increase by 63 and 33 thousand tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.47% and 13.14%. The continuous release of base liquor production capacity provides a strong guarantee for medium and long-term performance growth.
Adjust the structure and raise the price, release the output of base wine, and accelerate the production in 22 years. Following the launch of the high-end single product "Maotai 1935", Maotai officially released the ultra-high-end single product "new upgraded 53 degree 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (rare product)" on December 29. The ex factory price is set at 4299 yuan and the retail guide price is set at 4599 yuan. The company has successively launched strategic initiatives of high-end large single products, demonstrating the company's determination to upgrade the product structure. While pushing up the gross profit margin, it will further enhance the high-end positioning of Maotai and expand the brand influence. In addition, in 2020, the company raised the prices of a series of liquor, general distribution, zodiac and fine products for many times. Recently, the prices of Maotai new treasures and old liquor have also increased in the past 15 years. In 2017 / 2018, the base liquor output was 42800 / 49700 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% / 16.0%. The sales volume of finished liquor in 2022 is guaranteed. Based on the above, the company's products are expected to increase both volume and price in 2022, and the performance can be accelerated.
The new management is active and enterprising, and the company is expected to usher in a high-quality development period. After taking office, Ding Xiongjun, the new chairman of the board of directors, has been proactive and frequent in reform policies. With a more open, pragmatic and enterprising style, he has continued to convey a positive signal about the development of Maotai to the market. At the channel level, the company maintains the market with more market-oriented means, the price is controlled, the rational return is realized, and the pressure of social public opinion is reduced. Overall, the company's base liquor production capacity continues to expand, and the new promotion of Maotai 1935 and Zhenjiu has brought new growth poles, which is expected to increase both volume and price. The company may usher in a performance acceleration period of high-quality development in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company's 21q4 performance is accelerated, the 22-year high growth of performance is guaranteed, and the Buy-A rating will continue to be maintained. Fine tune the company's earnings per share forecast from 2021 to 2022 to 41.41 yuan and 49.40 yuan, and adjust the six-month target price to 2400 yuan, equivalent to 41x P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: policy and consumption tax risk, risk that the control effect of Maotai channel fails to meet the expectation, and risk that the expectation of price increase fails
