Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) (603098)
The company recently announced the announcement on the estimated amount of daily connected transactions of the company in 2022, in which the tax included purchase amount from the related party Xi’an Longji Green Energy Construction Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Longji green energy construction, the second largest shareholder of the company Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , 601012.sh, the wholly-owned subsidiary of the company) is expected to be 2.5 billion in 22 years (the amount in vs21 is 008.6 million yuan). We believe that the scale of related party transactions shows that the company has made good preparations for the large-scale expansion of BIPV business and preliminarily delineated the target, exceeding the market and our early expectations.
Recently, the company also announced that New Hua Du Supercenter Co.Ltd(002264) Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (002264.sz, mainly engaged in the chain operation of hypermarkets, comprehensive supermarkets and department stores) and its persons acting in concert recently increased the proportion of equity held in the company to 5.20% through centralized bidding transactions. We believe that the event reflects the strong confidence of industrial capital in the development prospect of the company.
22 years BIPV business or reengineering “two centrists”
We speculate that the raw materials purchased by the company from the related party Longji green energy construction are BIPV components. Referring to the recent BIPV bidding price of about 2.0 yuan / W, the related procurement scale in 22 years is 2.5 billion yuan, corresponding to about 1.25gw. Meanwhile, referring to the BIPV system construction cost of about 5.0 yuan / W in 20 years, Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) as a BIPV system solution provider, the related procurement scale corresponds to the company’s revenue of about 6.25 billion yuan. We think it may be a guide for the company’s BIPV business development in 22 years. It is roughly equivalent to relying on BIPV incremental business to realize the reconstruction of “two centrists” from the perspective of revenue (Note: the company’s 20fy revenue scale is 3.15 billion). On the other hand, due to the lack of relevant project case data, the profit margin of the business is relatively difficult to estimate; Considering that core cost elements such as components and inverters need Longji collaborative support, we expect the profit margin of BIPV business to be lower than that of the company’s traditional business.
Policy warm air blowing frequently, optimistic about the prospect of distributed photovoltaic
21 / 10 the national photovoltaic power generation operation of 21q1-3 released by the national energy administration. In the same period, China’s newly added photovoltaic grid connected capacity was 25.56gw, of which the centralized / distributed capacity was 9.15/16.41gw respectively, accounting for 64.20% (VSAT the end of 21q3, the distributed capacity accounted for 33.8% of China’s cumulative photovoltaic installation). Under the background of great pressure on module raw materials in 21 years, The development of distributed PV shows strong pressure bearing capacity (we think it is due to its better unit investment cost and less price sensitivity of the owner). On June 21, the National Energy Administration officially issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme of roof distributed photovoltaic in the whole county (city, district) (hereinafter referred to as the whole county promotion), which shows the importance of the policy on the recognition and promotion of the prospect of distributed photovoltaic, and an important starting point for the whole county to promote or achieve the goal of the 14th five year plan; On October 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak by 2030, which clearly accelerated the promotion of the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and buildings, and proposed that the roof photovoltaic coverage of new public institution buildings / plants in 25 years should strive to reach 50%; Policy warm wind blows frequently, and we remain optimistic about the development rhythm of subsequent BIPV.
Raise the profit forecast for 22 / 23 years, continue to be optimistic about the company’s secondary growth prospects, maintain the scale of related party transactions between the “overweight” rated company and Longji green energy construction, reflect the company’s confidence in the development of BIPV in 22 years and subsequent years, maintain the company’s performance forecast of 150 million in 21 years, raise the company’s performance forecast for 22 / 23 years to 420 / 690 million (the previous value was 270 / 460 million), and the current price corresponds to the company’s pe60x in 22 years, We are optimistic about the market prospect of BIPV. At the same time, we believe that the secondary growth prospect of the company is worth looking forward to. The large increase in industrial capital supports the industrial logic and continues to maintain the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: the newly signed order is lower than expected, the payment collection risk, and the cooperation effect with Longji is lower than expected
