Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
Event: on the evening of January 3, 2022, the company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 890 million yuan to 920 million yuan, an increase of 677 million yuan to 707 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 317.71% to 331.79%; The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit in 2021 will be RMB 800 million to RMB 830 million, an increase of RMB 640 million to RMB 670 million compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 399.58% to 418.31%. Performance exceeded expectations.
comment:
21q4 net profit accelerated month on month growth, and the performance greatly exceeded expectations. The 21q4 net profit of the company is expected to be 341-371 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 241% to 271% and a month-on-month increase of 49.56% to 62.72%; In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 331-361 million, with a year-on-year increase of 366% to 408% and a month-on-month increase of 61.46% to 76.10%.
The profitability of ternary cathode was improved and the product structure was optimized. The company’s 21q4 performance greatly exceeded expectations, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the profitability of ternary cathode material products and the gradual optimization of product structure. The company added 30000 tons of capacity in 21q3, and the overall capacity reached 120000 tons at the end of 21. We expect that the company will ship nearly 60000 tons of three yuan cathode in the whole year of 21, and the non net profit deducted per ton is nearly 14000 yuan / ton, realizing the simultaneous increase of volume and profit. The shipment volume of high nickel polycrystalline products maintained a leading position in the market, and the proportion of single crystal high energy density products and ultra-high nickel products above 9 series increased.
The increase in the proportion of self supply of precursors drives profit growth and strengthens the layout of raw materials. The company’s precursor sector has made remarkable progress in customer development, product research and development, engineering construction, etc. The proportion of self supply of precursors increased year-on-year, reaching about 30% in 21 years, and the profitability increased significantly year-on-year. The comprehensive cost competitiveness of the company has been further improved, and the double rise of production and sales volume has driven the scale effect and promoted the cost reduction and efficiency increase of manufacturing links; At the same time, the company strengthened the strategic procurement layout of raw materials and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) in November 2021. From 2022 to 2025, the precursor procurement volume of rongbai in Huayou will not be less than 180000 tons. Under the condition that the pricing method of metal raw materials and the processing fee of precursors have advantages, both parties expect the procurement volume of precursors to reach 415000 tons.
Acquire Fenggu energy conservation, master ceramic rotary kiln equipment and technology, reduce cost and increase efficiency. In December, the company announced that it planned to invest 41.7 million yuan to acquire 70% equity of Fenggu energy saving and develop high-performance ceramic rotary kiln. Sintering process is the core of ternary cathode material. This acquisition is conducive to the company’s cost reduction of equipment investment and process technology innovation, strengthen the company’s independent R & D capacity in process and equipment technology, improve production quality, save production energy consumption and reduce comprehensive manufacturing cost.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s production and sales of high nickel ternary cathode are booming, the proportion of self supply of precursors is increased, and the profit per ton continues to increase. Considering the high flexibility of the company’s capacity release and the obvious competitive advantage of high nickel ternary in the next few years, the company’s net profit forecast for 2021-2023e is increased (by 27% / 29% / 40%), and the net profit of 21-23e is expected to be RMB 905 / 1721 / 2704 million, corresponding to pe57 / 30 / 19x, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials, failure of raised investment projects to meet expectations, bad debt risk of accounts receivable.
