Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) (600276)
event
On December 31, 2021, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) two innovative drugs darcilil tablets and hengglijing tablets were approved by nmpa. So far, Hengrui has approved a total of 10 innovative drugs.
comment
Darcilide is the first domestic CDK4 / 6 inhibitor. In April 21, 2021, Heng Rui submitted Dahl Sealy’s NDA application, which was approved for 8 months and was used to treat recurrent or metastatic breast cancer with HR positive and HER2 negative after endocrine therapy. At present, only two imported CDK4 / 6 of Pfizer’s piperacillin and Eli Lilly’s abecili have been approved for listing in China, and Hengrui’s darcili is the first domestic CDK4 / 6 inhibitor. Heng Rui is still in the III phase of Dahl Sealy’s adjuvant therapy for breast cancer. The future application of Dahl Sealy is expected to further expand.
Hengglitazin is the first domestic sglt-2 inhibitor class 1 innovative drug. Currently, 4 imported SGLT-2 inhibitors and their domestic generic drugs have been approved for sale in China. Heng Lei, the first domestic SGLT-2 inhibitor, is the 1 innovative medicine for the improvement of glycemic control in adults with type two diabetes. Sglt-2 inhibitor has a wide range of uses. It has also been approved for indications such as heart failure and chronic kidney disease worldwide. Hengrui is also conducting a clinical trial of hengglitazin in the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, in order to further expand the applicable patient population of hengglitazin in the future.
In addition, Hengrui PD-1 monoclonal antibody carrelizumab was approved for two indications of first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer and first-line esophageal cancer in December. The dry eye product cyclasol introduced by Hengrui obtained positive results in the second key phase 3 clinical trial overseas.
Innovative drugs have gradually ushered in the harvest period. The revenue of Hengrui innovative drugs has increased from 34% in 2020 to about 40% in the first half of 2021. By the end of 2021, all 8 innovative drugs of Hengrui will be included in the national medical insurance catalogue. With the continuous listing of innovative drugs in the pipeline and the continuous expansion of indications, it is expected that Hengrui innovative drugs will gradually usher in the harvest period.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We maintain the company’s profit forecast of 6.4/74/8.1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 49 / 42 / 38 PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk statement
The risk of sales falling short of expectations, the risk of medical insurance negotiation falling short of expectations, the risk of innovative drug R & D, the risk of internationalization falling short of expectations, the risk of market competition, the risk of centralized purchase, the risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares, etc.
